e8东的信 _作者: 美 沃伦·巴菲特-第68节
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接下来是我们制服的制造与销售商费区海默的好消息，除了一个坏消息之外，那就是69岁的George Heldman决定要退休，我曾经试着说服他，不过他有一项令人无法拒绝的理由，因为他留下了其它四位Heldmans家族的成员…Bob、Fred、Gary与Roger做接班。
Fechheimer's operating performance improved considerably in 1990； as many of the problems we encountered in integrating the large acquisition we made in 1988 were moderated or solved。 However； several unusual items caused the earnings reported in the 〃Sources〃 table to be flat。 In the retail operation； we continue to add stores and now have 42 in 22 states。 Overall； prospects appear excellent for Fechheimer。
费区海默的经营绩效在1990年又大幅增进，因为先前在1988年大型的购并所产生的问题已逐渐获得解决，然而由于几个特殊的事件使得我们今年的盈余表现平平，在零售的部份，我们持续地拓展店面，目前在全美22个州拥有42家店，总言之，我们对于费区海默的前景仍然相当看好。
At Scott Fetzer； Ralph Schey runs 19 businesses with a mastery few bring to running one。 In addition to overseeing three entities listed on page 6 … World Book； Kirby； and Scott Fetzer Manufacturing … Ralph directs a finance operation that earned a record 12。2 million pre…tax in 1990。
轮到史考特飞兹，Ralph Schey经营19家企业的手法比起一般人经营一个还娴熟，除了后面所叙述的三家企业…世界百科全书、寇比吸尘器与史考特飞兹制造公司之外，Ralph甚至还掌管一家年税前获利1；220万美元的财务公司。
Were Scott Fetzer an independent pany； it would rank close to the top of the Fortune 500 in terms of return on equity； although it is not in businesses that one would expect to be economic champs。 The superior results are directly attributable to Ralph。
如果史考特飞兹是一个独立的集团，它在财富五百大股东权益报酬率的排名一定能名列前茅，虽然它所处的产业很难出现耀眼的明星，但这些难得的成绩全都要归功于Ralph。
At World Book； earnings improved on a small decrease in unit volume。 The costs of our decentralization move were considerably less in 1990 than 1989 and the benefits of decentralization are being realized。 World Book remains far and away the leader in United States encyclopedia sales and we are growing internationally； though from a small base。
世界百科全书，虽然销售数量略微下滑，但盈余却变佳，1990年因分散决策中心的做法所须负担的成本较1989年减少，而其所带来的效益却逐渐显现，世界百科全书在全美百科全书销售中依旧独占鳌头，至于海外市场方面虽然基础规模较小，但却持续地成长中。
Kirby unit volume grew substantially in 1990 with the help of our new vacuum cleaner； The Generation 3； which was an unqualified success。 Earnings did not grow as fast as sales because of both start…up expenditures and 〃learning…curve〃 problems we encountered in manufacturing the new product。 International business； whose dramatic growth I described last year； had a further 20％ sales gain in 1990。 With the aid of a recent price increase； we expect excellent earnings at Kirby in 1991。
受惠于新款的真空吸尘器，寇比在1990年的销售数量大增，第三代的推出无疑是一大胜利，由于先期开发成本与新产品制造所面临的学习曲线问题，使得获利增加不若营收成长的幅度，海外市场方面相较于去年爆炸性的成长，今年再度有20％的成长，而由于最近产品价格再度调涨，我们预期寇比在1991年的获利应该会更好。
Within the Scott Fetzer Manufacturing Group； Campbell Hausfeld； its largest unit； had a particularly fine year。 This pany； the country's leading producer of small and medium…sized air pressors； achieved record sales of 109 million； more than 30％ of which came from products introduced during the last five years。
至于史考特飞兹制造公司部份，最大的单位Campbell Hausfeld今年的表现特别好，它是全美中小型空气压缩机的领导品牌，年度营业额创下1。09亿美元的新高，其中有30％的营收系来自于最近五年新推出的产品。
In looking at the figures for our non…insurance operations； you will see that net worth increased by only 47 million in 1990 although earnings were 133 million。 This does not mean that our managers are in any way skimping on investments that strengthen their business franchises or that promote growth。 Indeed； they diligently pursue both goals。
在看我们非保险业的营运数字时，大家可能会好奇为何我们年度的盈余有1。33亿美元，但净值却只增加了4；700万美元呢？ 这并不代表我们的经理人用任何方法来掩盖其公司的经济实力或成长潜力，事实上他们无不努力追求这些目标。
But they also never deploy capital without good reason。 The result： In the past five years they have funneled well over 80％ of their earnings to Charlie and me for use in new business and investment opportunities。
不过他们也从不会毫无理由地浪费资金，过去五年以来他们将所赚得的80％盈余送回母公司，交给查理跟我运用在新的事业与投资机会之上。
Insurance Operations保险业营运
Shown below is an updated version of our usual table presenting key figures for the property…casualty insurance industry：
下表是产物意外险业的最新的几项重要指数
Yearly Change bined Ratio Yearly Change Inflation Ratein Premiums After Policyholder in Incurred Measured byWritten （％） Dividends Losses （％） GNP Deflator （％）
1981 1982 。 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 （Revised） 1990（Est。）
3。8 3。7 5。0 8。5 22。1 22。2 9。4 4。4 3。2 4。5
106。0 109。6 112。0 118。0 116。3 108。0 104。6 105。4 109。2 109。8
6。5 8。4 6。8 16。9 16。1 13。5 7。8 5。5 7。7 4。1
9。6 6。5 3。8 3。8 3。0 2。6 3。1 3。3 4。1 5。0
Source： A。M。 Best Co。
The bined ratio represents total insurance costs （losses incurred plus expenses） pared to revenue from premiums： A ratio below 100 indicates an underwriting profit； and one above 100 indicates a loss。 The higher the ratio； the worse the year。 When the investment ine that an insurer earns from holding policyholders' funds （〃the float〃） is taken into account； a bined ratio in the 107 … 111 range typically produces an overall breakeven result； exclusive of earnings on the funds provided by shareholders。
综合比率代表保险的总成本（理赔损失加上费用）占保费收入的比例，比率在100以下代表有承保的损失，在100以上则代表有承保的获利综合比率代表的是保险的总成本（损失加上费用）占保费收入的比率，100以下代表会有承销利益，100以上代表会有承销损失，若把持有保费收入浮存金（扣除股东权益部份所产生的盈余）所产生的投资收益列入考量，损益两平的范围大概是在107…111之间。
For the reasons laid out in previous reports； we expect the industry's incurred losses to grow at an average of 10％ annually； even in periods when general inflation runs considerably lower。 （Over the last 25 years； incurred losses have in reality grown at a still faster rate； 11％。） If premium growth meanwhile materially lags that 10％ rate； underwriting losses will mount； though the industry's tendency to under…reserve when business turns bad may obscure their size for a time。
基于前几次年报所说明的理由，即使是通货膨胀在这几年来相对温和，我们预期保险业每年损失增加的比率约在10％左右，若是保费收入成长没有到达10％以上，损失一定会增加，（事实上过去25年以来，理赔损失系以11％的速度在成长），虽然保险公司在景气不好时，会习惯性地将损失暂时隐藏起来。
Last year premium growth fell far short of the required 10％ and underwriting results therefore worsened。 （In our table； however； the severity of the deterioration in 1990 is masked because the industry's 1989 losses from Hurricane Hugo caused the ratio for that year to be somewhat above trendline。） The bined ratio will again increase in 1991； probably by about two points。
去年保费收入的成长远低于最基本的10％要求，承保成绩可想而知会继续恶化， （不过在这张表上，1990年恶化的程度因为1989年发生Hugo飓风钜额损失而被略微掩盖），1991年的综合比率将会再度恶化，有可能会增加2个百分点以上。
Results will improve only when most insurance managements bee so fearful that they run from business； even though it can be done at much higher prices than now exist。 At some point these managements will indeed get the message： The most important thing to do when you find yourself in a hole is to stop digging。 But so farthat point hasn't gotten across： Insurance managers continue to dig … sullenly but vigorously。
虽然以现在的市场状况保险业者大可以用比现在更高的价格来作生意，但营运结果却只可能在所有的保险公司主管因为恐惧而远离市场时才有可能好转，就某种程度而言，这些经理人应该已经收到了一些讯息，当你发现自己深陷洞中最重要的一件事就是不要再挖了，不过这个临界点显然还没到，许多保险公司虽然不甘愿但还是用力地在挖洞。
The picture would change quickly if a major physical or financial catastrophe were to occur。 Absent such a shock； one to two years will likely pass before underwriting losses bee large enough to raise management fear to a level that would spur major price increases。 When that moment arrives； Berkshire will be ready … both financially and psychologically … to write huge amounts of business。
还好这种情况可能在发生重大的天然灾害或金融风暴后很快地改变，但若是没有这类事件发生，可能还要再等一、两年，直到所有的保险公司受不了钜额的承保损失，才有可能迫使经理人大幅提高保费，而等那个时刻到来时，Berkshire一定会作好准备，不论是在财务上或是心理上，等着接下大笔大笔的保单。
In the meantime； our insurance volume continues to be small but satisfactory。 In the next section of this report we will give you a framework for evaluating insurance results。 From that discussion； you will gain an understanding of why I am so enthusiastic about the performance of our insurance manager； Mike Goldberg； and his cadre of stars； Rod Eldred； Dinos Iordanou； Ajit Jain； and Don Wurster。
在此同时，我们的保费收入虽然很少但还是处于可以接受的范围，在下一段报告中我会告诉大家如何去衡量保险公司的绩效表现，看完之后你就会明了，为�
