e8东的信 _作者: 美 沃伦·巴菲特-第34节
按键盘上方向键 ← 或 → 可快速上下翻页，按键盘上的 Enter 键可回到本书目录页，按键盘上方向键 ↑ 可回到本页顶部！
————未阅读完？加入书签已便下次继续阅读！
o In the meantime； our major parking place for money is medium…term tax…exempt bonds； whose limited virtues I explained in last year's annual report。 Though we both bought and sold some of these bonds in 1987； our position changed little overall； holding around 900 million。 A large portion of our bonds are 〃grandfathered〃 under the Tax Reform Act of 1986； which means they are fully tax…exempt。 Bonds currently purchased by insurance panies are not。
当作短期约当现金的替代品，中期免税债券的表现还算不错，他们贡献了不少额外的投资报酬，且目前的价值也略高于我们当初投资的成本，但不管之后他们的市价高或低，只要我们找到更好的投资机会，我们随时都有可能把他们给处分掉。
As an alternative to short…term cash equivalents； our medium…term tax…exempts have … so far served us well。 They have produced substantial extra ine for us and are currently worth a bit above our cost。 Regardless of their market price； we are ready to dispose of our bonds whenever something better es along。
我们持续避免去碰长期债券（也有可能因为没有对中期免税债券保持距离而犯下大错），债券没有比他们表彰的货币来得好，在过去十年以即可预见的未来，我们看不出我们会对美国债券有太大的兴趣。
o We continue to have an aversion to long…term bonds （and may be making a serious mistake by not disliking medium…term bonds as well）。 Bonds are no better than the currency in which they are denominated； and nothing we have seen in the past year … or past decade … makes us enthusiastic about the long…term future of U。S。 currency。
我们钜额的贸易逆差，使得我们必须面临许多不同形式的支票帐单，这包含外国人持有的美国政府与企业公债、银行存款等，以惊人的速度累积成长，一开始我们的政府所采取的方式，就像是欲望街车的角色布兰奇所说的，我总是依赖陌生人的同情心而活，当然本案的陌生人依靠的主要是债务人的可靠性，虽然贬值的美元也让他们必须付出高昂的代价。
Our enormous trade deficit is causing various forms of 〃claim checks〃 … U。S。 government and corporate bonds； bank deposits； etc。 … to pile up in the hands of foreigners at a distressing rate。 By default； our government has adopted an approach to its finances patterned on that of Blanche DuBois； of A Streetcar Named Desire； who said； 〃I have always depended on the kindness of strangers。〃 In this case； of course； the 〃strangers〃 are relying on the integrity of our claim checks although the plunging dollar has already made that proposition expensive for them。
外国人对我们的信心可能有点所托非人，因为当要付的支票帐单持续的增加，而债务人又能够无限制地主导自己的购买能力时，美钞发行人增加流通货币来稀释其货币价值的情况铁定会发生，对于债务国政府来说，通货膨胀这项武器就好象是经济战争中威力强大的氢弹一样，很少有国家可以让全世界充斥着以自己货币计价的债券，不过由于我们国家过去不错的财政记录，使得我们能够打破这项限制，只是这样的宽容使得我们通膨的压力只会增加不会减少，而一旦我们屈服于这样的压力，不只是持有美国债权的外国人遭殃，连带的我们也会受到影响。
The faith that foreigners are placing in us may be misfounded。 When the claim checks outstanding grow sufficiently numerous and when the issuing party can unilaterally determine their purchasing power； the pressure on the issuer to dilute their value by inflating the currency bees almost irresistible。 For the debtor government； the weapon of inflation is the economic equivalent of the 〃H〃 bomb； and that is why very few countries have been allowed to swamp the world with debt denominated in their own currency。 Our past； relatively good record for fiscal integrity has let us break this rule； but the generosity accorded us is likely to intensify； rather than relieve； the eventual pressure on us to inflate。 If we do succumb to that pressure； it won't be just the foreign holders of our claim checks who will suffer。 It will be all of us as well。
当然在债务问题失控之前，美国政府也会试着采取一些方法来抑制贸易逆差， （有关于这点，下滑的美元汇率或许会有帮助，只是同样地它又会造成另一种伤害），目前我们政府的做法跟乱世佳人里郝思佳的态度差不多一样，「明天再想办法吧！」，而几乎无可避免的对于财政问题的处理耽搁将会造成通货膨胀的后果。
Of course； the U。S。 may take steps to stem our trade deficit well before our position as a net debtor gets out of hand。 （In that respect； the falling dollar will help； though unfortunately it will hurt in other ways。） Nevertheless； our government's behavior in this test of its mettle is apt to be consistent with its Scarlett O'Hara approach generally： 〃I'll think about it tomorrow。〃 And； almost inevitably； procrastination in facing up to fiscal problems will have inflationary consequences。
只是这些后果发生的时点与影响我们实在无从去预测，不过无法去量化或是锁定这种风险不代表我们就可以忽视它的存在，当然我们的推论也许会不准确，目前的利率水准或可弥补通货膨胀所带来的损失，只是我们对于长期的债券仍报以持续的戒心。
Both the timing and the sweep of those consequences are unpredictable。 But our inability to quantify or time the risk does not mean we should ignore it。 While recognizing the possibility that we may be wrong and that present interest rates may adequately pensate for the inflationary risk； we retain a general fear of long…term bonds。
然而我们仍愿意把一部份资金摆在这上头，如果在某些特定的有价证券上有特殊的利益，就像是我在1984年年报中曾经提到我们在华盛顿公用电力系统债券上的投资，在1987年我们又持续加码投资，总计到年底我们持有的这类帐面未摊销成本为2。4亿美元债券，市价约为3。16亿美元，还外加每年三千四百万美元的免税利息收入。
We are； however； willing to invest a moderate portion of our funds in this category if we think we have a significant edge in a specific security。 That willingness explains our holdings of the Washington Public Power Supply Systems #1； #2 and #3 issues； discussed in our 1984 report。 We added to our WPPSS position during 1987。 At yearend； we had holdings with an amortized cost of 240 million and a market value of 316 million； paying us tax…exempt ine of 34 million annually。 o We continued to do well in arbitrage last year； though … or perhaps because … we operated on a very limited scale。 We enter into only a few arbitrage mitments each year and restrict ourselves to large transactions that have been publicly announced。 We do not participate in situations in which green…mailers are attempting to put a target pany 〃in play。〃
我们持续在短期套利交易上有所斩获，虽然我们从事的规模有限，每年我们限制自己只专注在几个少数已公开信息的大型交易案，我们不介入那些已被投机套利客锁定的个案。
We have practiced arbitrage on an opportunistic basis for decades and； to date； our results have been quite good。 Though we've never made an exact calculation； I believe that overall we have averaged annual pre…tax returns of at least 25％ from arbitrage。 I'm quite sure we did better than that in 1987。 But it should be emphasized that a really bad experience or two … such as many arbitrage operations suffered in late 1987 … could change the figures dramatically。
我们从事机率套利已有好几十年的经验，到目前为止，我们的成果还算不错，虽然我们从来没有仔细去算过，我相信我们在套利投资方面的税前年报酬率应该有25％左右，我确信1987年的成绩甚至比以前好的多，但必须强调的是只要发生一、两次像今年其它几个套利惨痛的经验，就可能使得整个结果猪羊变色。
Our only 50 million…plus arbitrage position at yearend 1987 was 1；096；200 shares of Allegis； with a cost of 76 million and a market value of 78 million。
今年我们新增5；000万美元以上的套利案只有斥资7；600万美元投资100万股Allegis，目前的市价约为7；800万美元。
o We had two other large holdings at yearend that do not fit precisely into any of our five categories。 One was various Texaco； Inc。 bonds with short maturities； all purchased after Texaco went into bankruptcy。 Were it not for the extraordinarily strong capital position of our insurance panies； it would be inappropriate for us to buy defaulted bonds。 At prices prevailing after Texaco's bankruptcy filing； however； we regarded these issues as by far the most attractive bond investment available to us。
我们在年底还有其它二个主要的投资组合不在前述五个范围之内，一项是Texaco短期债券，全都是在它破产之后才买进，要不是因为我们旗下保险公司的财务实力雄厚，我们实在不太适合去买这种已发生问题的债券，不过以这些债券在Texaco倒闭后的低廉价格，这是目前我们可以找得到最吸引我们的投资标的。
On a worst…case basis with respect to the Pennzoil litigation； we felt the bonds were likely to be worth about what we paid for them。 Given a sensible settlement； which seemed likely； we expected the bonds to be worth considerably more。 At yearend our Texaco bonds were carried on our books at 104 million and had a market value of 119 million。
考量其所牵涉的诉讼案件，在最坏的情况之下，我们认为应该还是可以将投资成本回收，而若是官司可以和解收场，我们预期债券的价值将会更高，截至年底Texaco债券在我们帐面上的成本约为一亿美元，目前的市值则约为1。2亿美元。
By far our largest … and most publicized … investment in 1987 was a 700 million purchase of Salomon Inc 9％ preferred stock。 This preferred is convertible after three years into Salomon mon stock at 38 per share and； if not converted； will be redeemed ratably over five years beginning October 31； 1995。 From most standpoints； this mitment fits into the medium…term fixed…ine securities category。 In addition； we have an interesting conversion possibility。
在投资银行业，我们当然没有特殊的远见能够预知其未来发展的方向与获利能力，就产业特性而言，投资银行业比起我们其它主要投资的行业更难预测，这也是为什么我们选择以可转换特别股的�
