e8东的信 _作者: 美 沃伦·巴菲特-第31节
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to say； the poor fellow has incurable emotional problems。 At times he feels euphoric and can see only the favorable factors affecting the business。 When in that mood； he names a very high buy…sell price because he fears that you will snap up his interest and rob him of imminent gains。 At other times he is depressed and can see nothing but trouble ahead for both the business and the world。 On these occasions he will name a very low price； since he is terrified that you will unload your interest on him。
市场先生还有一个很可爱的特点，那就是他不在乎受到冷落，若今天他提出的报价不被接受，隔天他还是会上门重新报价，要不要交易完全由你自主，所以在这种情况下，他的行为举止越失措，你可能得到的好处也就越多。
Mr。 Market has another endearing characteristic： He doesn't mind being ignored。 If his quotation is uninteresting to you today； he will be back with a new one tomorrow。 Transactions are strictly at your option。 Under these conditions； the more manic…depressive his behavior； the better for you。
但就像辛蒂瑞拉参加的化妆舞会一样，你务必注意午夜前的钟响，否则马车将会变回番瓜，市场先生是来给你服务的，千万不要受他的诱惑反而被他所导引，你要利用的是他饱饱的口袋，而不是草包般的脑袋，如果他有一天突然傻傻地出现在你面前，你可以选择视而不见或好好地加以利用，但是要是你占不到他的便宜反而被他愚蠢的想法所吸引，则你的下场可能会很凄惨；事实上若是你没有把握能够比市场先生更清楚地衡量企业的价值，你最好不要跟他玩这样的游戏，就像是打牌一样，若是你没有办法在30分钟内看出谁是肉脚，那么那个肉脚很可能就是你！
But； like Cinderella at the ball； you must heed one warning or everything will turn into pumpkins and mice： Mr。 Market is there to serve you； not to guide you。 It is his pocketbook； not his wisdom； that you will find useful。 If he shows up some day in a particularly foolish mood； you are free to either ignore him or to take advantage of him； but it will be disastrous if you fall under his influence。 Indeed； if you aren't certain that you understand and can value your business far better than Mr。 Market； you don't belong in the game。 As they say in poker； 〃If you've been in the game 30 minutes and you don't know who the patsy is； you're the patsy。〃
葛拉汉的市场先生理论在现今的投资世界内或许显得有些过时，尤其是在那些大谈市场效率理论、动态避险与beta值的专家学者眼中更是如此，他们会对那些深奥的课题感到兴趣是可以理解的，因为这对于渴望投资建议的追求者来说，是相当具吸引力的，就像是没有一位名医可以单靠「吃两颗阿斯匹宁」这类简单有效的建议成名致富的。
Ben's Mr。 Market allegory may seem out…of…date in today's investment world； in which most professionals and academicians talk of efficient markets； dynamic hedging and betas。 Their interest in such matters is understandable； since techniques shrouded in mystery clearly have value to the purveyor of investment advice。 After all； what witch doctor has ever achieved fame and fortune by simply advising 〃Take two aspirins〃？
这当然是股市秘籍存在的价值，但就我个人的看法，投资成功不是靠晦涩难解的公式、计算机运算或是股票行情板上股票上下的跳动，相反地投资人要能成功，惟有凭借着优异的商业判断同时避免自己的想法、行为，受到容易煽动人心的市场情绪所影响，以我个人的经验来说，要能够免除市场诱惑，最好的方法就是将葛拉汉的市场先生理论铭记在心。
The value of market esoterica to the consumer of investment advice is a different story。 In my opinion； investment success will not be produced by arcane formulae； puter programs or signals flashed by the price behavior of stocks and markets。 Rather an investor will succeed by coupling good business judgment with an ability to insulate his thoughts and behavior from the super…contagious emotions that swirl about the marketplace。 In my own efforts to stay insulated； I have found it highly useful to keep Ben's Mr。 Market concept firmly in mind。
追随葛拉汉的教诲，查理跟我着眼的是投资组合本身的经营成果，以此来判断投资是否成功，而不是他们每天或是每年的股价变化，短期间市场或许会忽略一家经营成功的企业，但最后这些公司终将获得市场的肯定，就像葛拉汉所说的：「短期而言，股票市场是一个投票机，但长期来说，它却是一个体重机」一家成功的公司是否很快地就被发现并不是重点，重要的是只要这家公司的内在价值能够以稳定地速度成长才是关键，事实上越晚被发现有时好处更多，因为我们就有更多的机会以便宜的价格买进它的股份。
Following Ben's teachings； Charlie and I let our marketable equities tell us by their operating results … not by their daily； or even yearly； price quotations … whether our investments are successful。 The market may ignore business success for a while； but eventually will confirm it。 As Ben said： 〃In the short run； the market is a voting machine but in the long run it is a weighing machine。〃 The speed at which a business's success is recognized； furthermore； is not that important as long as the pany's intrinsic value is increasing at a satisfactory rate。 In fact； delayed recognition can be an advantage： It may give us the chance to buy more of a good thing at a bargain price。
当然有时市场也会高估一家企业的价值，在这种情况下，我们会考虑把股份出售，另外有时虽然公司股价合理或甚至略微低估，但若是我们发现有更被低估的投资标的或是我们觉得比较熟悉了解的公司时，我们也会考虑出售股份。
Sometimes； of course； the market may judge a business to be more valuable than the underlying facts would indicate it is。 In such a case； we will sell our holdings。 Sometimes； also； we will sell a security that is fairly valued or even undervalued because we require funds for a still more undervalued investment or one we believe we understand better。
然而我们必须强调的是我们不会因为被投资公司的股价上涨或是因为我们已经持有一段时间，就把它们给处分掉，在华尔街名言中，最可笑的莫过于是「赚钱的人是不会破产的」，我们很愿意无限期的持有一家公司的股份，只要这家公司所运用的资金可以产生令人满意的报酬、管理阶层优秀能干且正直，同时市场对于其股价没有过度的高估。
We need to emphasize； however； that we do not sell holdings just because they have appreciated or because we have held them for a long time。 （Of Wall Street maxims the most foolish may be 〃You can't go broke taking a profit。〃） We are quite content to hold any security indefinitely； so long as the prospective return on equity capital of the underlying business is satisfactory； management is petent and honest； and the market does not overvalue the business。
但是这不包含我们保险公司所拥有的三家企业，即使它们的股价再怎么涨，我们也不会卖，事实上我们把这些投资与前面那些具控制权的公司一样地看待，它们不像是一般的商品可以卖来卖去，反而像是Berkshire企业的一部份，不管市场先生提出再怎么高的天价也一样，只是在此我要加一条但书，除非因为我们的保险公司发生钜额亏损，必须出售部份的持股来弥补亏损，当然我们会尽所能避免这种情况发生。
However； our insurance panies own three marketable mon stocks that we would not sell even though they became far overpriced in the market。 In effect； we view these investments exactly like our successful controlled businesses … a permanent part of Berkshire rather than merchandise to be disposed of once Mr。 Market offers us a sufficiently high price。 To that； I will add one qualifier： These stocks are held by our insurance panies and we would； if absolutely necessary； sell portions of our holdings to pay extraordinary insurance losses。 We intend； however； to manage our affairs so that sales are never required。
当然查理跟我决定要拥有并持有一家公司的股份，是同时综合了个人想法与财务方面的考量，对某些人来说，我们这样的做法可能有点不合常规， （查理跟我长期以来一直遵从奥美广告创办人�；大卫奥美的建议，在年轻时发展出你自己的特异风格，这样子等你到老时，人们就不会觉得你是个怪胎），的确，近年来在交易频繁的华尔街，我们的态度看起来有些特立独行，在那个竞技场内，所有的公司与股份，都不过是交易的筹码而已。
A determination to have and to hold； which Charlie and I share； obviously involves a mixture of personal and financial considerations。 To some； our stand may seem highly eccentric。 （Charlie and I have long followed David Oglivy's advice： 〃Develop your eccentricities while you are young。 That way； when you get old； people won't think you're going ga…ga。〃） Certainly； in the transaction…fixated Wall Street of recent years； our posture must seem odd： To many in that arena； both panies and stocks are seen only as raw material for trades。
但是我们的态度完全符合我们本身的人格特质，这就是我们想要过的生活，丘吉尔曾经说过，我们很清楚我们要如何去塑造我们想要的模式，因此我们宁愿跟我们喜欢与推崇的对象往来，就算是因此，会比跟一些我们讨厌或是不喜欢的人打交道，少得到一些投资报酬也没有关系，我想我们是大概不可能再遇到像这三家主要的被投资公司组成份子一样，令我们所喜爱与推崇。
以下所列就是我们永恒的持股
Our attitude； however； fits our personalities and the way we want to live our lives。 Churchill once said； 〃You shape your houses and then they shape you。〃 We know the manner in which we wish to be shaped。 For that reason； we would rather achieve a return of X while associating with people whom we strongly like and admire than realize 110％ of X by exchanging these relationships for uninteresting or unpleasant ones。 And we will never find people we like and admire more than some of the main participants at the three panies … our permanent holdings … shown below：
No。 of Shares Cost Market
（000s omitted）
3；000；000 Capital Cities/ABC； Inc。 。。。。。。。。。。。 517；500 1；035；000
6；850；000 GEICO Corporation 。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。 45；713 756；925
1；727；765 The Washington Post pany 。。。。。。。。9；731 323；092
在这些公司上，我们实�
