darwin and modern science-第166节

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d　by　an　individual　statesman；　artist　or　savant　are　usually　only　a　residue　of　the　numerous　projects　conceived　by　his　brain）。　　This　process　in　which　so　much　abortive　production　occurs　is　analogous　to　elimination　by　natural　selection。）

16。　　But　if　it　is　admitted　that　the　governing　factors　which　concern　the　student　of　social　development　are　of　the　psychical　order；　the　preliminary　success　of　natural　science　in　explaining　organic　evolution　by　general　principles　encouraged　sociologists　to　hope　that　social　evolution　could　be　explained　on　general　principles　also。　　The　idea　of　Condorcet；　Buckle；　and　others；　that　history　could　be　assimilated　to　the　natural　sciences　was　powerfully　reinforced；　and　the　notion　that　the　actual　historical　process；　and　every　social　movement　involved　in　it；　can　be　accounted　for　by　sociological　generalisations；　so…called　〃laws；〃　is　still　entertained　by　many；　in　one　form　or　another。　　Dissentients　from　this　view　do　not　deny　that　the　generalisations　at　which　the　sociologist　arrives　by　the　comparative　method；　by　the　analysis　of　social　factors；　and　by　psychological　deduction　may　be　an　aid　to　the　historian；　but　they　deny　that　such　uniformities　are　laws　or　contain　an　explanation　of　the　phenomena。　　They　can　point　to　the　element　of　chance　coincidence。　　This　element　must　have　played　a　part　in　the　events　of　organic　evolution；　but　it　has　probably　in　a　larger　measure　helped　to　determine　events　in　social　evolution。　　The　collision　of　two　unconnected　sequences　may　be　fraught　with　great　results。　　The　sudden　death　of　a　leader　or　a　marriage　without　issue；　to　take　simple　cases；　has　again　and　again　led　to　permanent　political　consequences。　　More　emphasis　is　laid　on　the　decisive　actions　of　individuals；　which　cannot　be　reduced　under　generalisations　and　which　deflect　the　course　of　events。　　If　the　significance　of　the　individual　will　had　been　exaggerated　to　the　neglect　of　the　collective　activity　of　the　social　aggregate　before　Condorcet；　his　doctrine　tended　to　eliminate　as　unimportant　the　roles　of　prominent　men；　and　by　means　of　this　elimination　it　was　possible　to　found　sociology。　　But　it　may　be　urged　that　it　is　patent　on　the　face　of　history　that　its　course　has　constantly　been　shaped　and　modified　by　the　wills　of　individuals　（We　can　ignore　here　the　metaphysical　question　of　freewill　and　determinism。　　For　the　character　of　the　individual's　brain　depends　in　any　case　on　ante…natal　accidents　and　coincidences；　and　so　it　may　be　said　that　the　role　of　individuals　ultimately　depends　on　chance；the　accidental　coincidence　of　independent　sequences。）；　which　are　by　no　means　always　the　expression　of　the　collective　will；　and　that　the　appearance　of　such　personalities　at　the　given　moments　is　not　a　necessary　outcome　of　the　conditions　and　cannot　be　deduced。　　Nor　is　there　any　proof　that；　if　such　and　such　an　individual　had　not　been　born；　some　one　else　would　have　arisen　to　do　what　he　did。　　In　some　cases　there　is　no　reason　to　think　that　what　happened　need　ever　have　come　to　pass。　　In　other　cases；　it　seems　evident　that　the　actual　change　was　inevitable；　but　in　default　of　the　man　who　initiated　and　guided　it；　it　might　have　been　postponed；　and；　postponed　or　not；　might　have　borne　a　different　cachet。　　I　may　illustrate　by　an　instance　which　has　just　come　under　my　notice。　　Modern　painting　was　founded　by　Giotto；　and　the　Italian　expedition　of　Charles　VIII；　near　the　close　of　the　sixteenth　century；　introduced　into　France　the　fashion　of　imitating　Italian　painters。　But　for　Giotto　and　Charles　VIII；　French　painting　might　have　been　very　different。　　It　may　be　said　that　〃if　Giotto　had　not　appeared；　some　other　great　initiator　would　have　played　a　role　analogous　to　his；　and　that　without　Charles　VIII　there　would　have　been　the　commerce　with　Italy；　which　in　the　long　run　would　have　sufficed　to　place　France　in　relation　with　Italian　artists。　　But　the　equivalent　of　Giotto　might　have　been　deferred　for　a　century　and　probably　would　have　been　different；　and　commercial　relations　would　have　required　ages　to　produce　the　rayonnement　imitatif　of　Italian　art　in　France；　which　the　expedition　of　the　royal　adventurer　provoked　in　a　few　years。〃　　（I　have　taken　this　example　from　G。　Tarde's　〃La　logique　sociale〃　2　（page　403）；　Paris；　1904；　where　it　is　used　for　quite　a　different　purpose。）　　Instances　furnished　by　political　history　are　simply　endless。　　Can　we　conjecture　how　events　would　have　moved　if　the　son　of　Philip　of　Macedon　had　been　an　incompetent？　　The　aggressive　action　of　Prussia　which　astonished　Europe　in　1740　determined　the　subsequent　history　of　Germany；　but　that　action　was　anything　but　inevitable；　it　depended　entirely　on　the　personality　of　Frederick　the　Great。

Hence　it　may　be　argued　that　the　action　of　individual　wills　is　a　determining　and　disturbing　factor；　too　significant　and　effective　to　allow　history　to　be　grasped　by　sociological　formulae。　　The　types　and　general　forms　of　development　which　the　sociologist　attempts　to　disengage　can　only　assist　the　historian　in　understanding　the　actual　course　of　events。　　It　is　in　the　special　domains　of　economic　history　and　Culturgeschichte　which　have　come　to　the　front　in　modern　times　that　generalisation　is　most　fruitful；　but　even　in　these　it　may　be　contended　that　it　furnishes　only　partial　explanations。

17。　　The　truth　is　that　Darwinism　itself　offers　the　best　illustration　of　the　insufficiency　of　general　laws　to　account　for　historical　development。　　The　part　played　by　coincidence；　and　the　part　played　by　individualslimited　by；　and　related　to；　general　social　conditionsrender　it　impossible　to　deduce　the　course　of　the　past　history　of　man　or　to　predict　the　future。　　But　it　is　just　the　same　with　organic　development。　　Darwin　（or　any　other　zoologist）　could　not　deduce　the　actual　course　of　evolution　from　general　principles。　　Given　an　organism　and　its　environment；　he　could　not　show　that　it　must　evolve　into　a　more　complex　organism　of　a　definite　pre…determined　type；　knowing　what　it　has　evolved　into；　he　could　attempt　to　discover　and　assign　the　determining　causes。　　General　principles　do　not　account　for　a　particular　sequence；　they　embody　necessary　conditions；　but　there　is　a　chapter　of　accidents　too。　　It　is　the　same　in　the　case　of　history。

18。　　Among　the　evolutional　attempts　to　subsume　the　course　of　history　under　general　syntheses；　perhaps　the　most　important　is　that　of　Lamprecht；　whose　〃kulturhistorische　Methode；〃　which　he　has　deduced　from　and　applied　to　German　history；　exhibits　the　（indirect）　influence　of　the　Comtist　school。　　It　is　based　upon　psychology；　which；　in　his　view；　holds　among　the　sciences　of　mind　（Geisteswissenschaften）　the　same　place　（that　of　a　Grundwissenschaft）　which　mechanics　holds　among　the　sciences　of　nature。　　History；　by　the　same　comparison；　corresponds　to　biology；　and；　according　to　him；　it　can　only　become　scientific　if　it　is　reduced　to　general　concepts　（Begriffe）。　　Historical　movements　and　events　are　of　a　psychical　character；　and　Lamprecht　conceives　a　given　phase　of　civilisation　as　〃a　collective　psychical　condition　（seelischer　Gesamtzustand）〃　controlling　the　period；　〃a　diapason　which　penetrates　all　psychical　phenomena　and　thereby　all　historical　events　of　the　time。〃　　（〃Die　kulturhistorische　Methode〃；　Berlin；　1900；　page　26。）　　He　has　worked　out　a　series　of　such　phases；　〃ages　of　changing　psychical　diapason；〃　in　his　〃Deutsche　Geschichte〃　with　the　aim　of　showing　that　all　the　feelings　and　actions　of　each　age　can　be　explained　by　the　diapason；　and　has　attempted　to　prove　that　these　diapasons　are　exhibited　in　other　social　developments；　and　are　consequently　not　singular　but　typical。　　He　maintains　further　that　these　ages　succeed　each　other　in　a　definite　order；　the　principle　being　that　the　collective　psychical　development　begins　with　the　homogeneity　of　all　the　individual　members　of　a　society　and；　through　heightened　psychical　activity；　advances　in　the　form　of　a　continually　increasing　differentiation　of　the　individuals　（this　is　akin　to　the　Spencerian　formula）。　　This　process；　evolving　psychical　freedom　from　psychical　constraint；　exhibits　a　series　of　psychical　phenomena　which　define　successive　periods　of　civilisation。　　The　process　depends　on　two　simple　principles；　that　no　idea　can　disappear　without　leaving　behind　it　an　effect　or　influence；　and　that　all　psychical　life；　whether　in　a　person　or　a　society；　means　change；　the　acquisition　of　new　mental　contents。　　It　follows　that　the　new　have　to　come　to　terms　with　the　old；　and　this　leads　to　a　synthesis　which　determines　the　character　of　a　new　age。　　Hence　the　ages　of　civilisation　are　defined　as　the　〃highest　concepts　for　subsuming　without　exception　all　psychical　phenomena　of　the　development　of　human　societies；　that　is；　of　all　historical　events。〃　　（Ibid。　pages　28；　29。）　　Lamprecht　deduces　the　idea　of　a　special　historical　science；　which　might　be　called　〃historical　ethnology；〃　dealing　with　the　ages　of　civilisation；　and　bearing　the　same　relation　to　（descriptive　or　narrative）　history　as　ethnology　to　ethnography。　　Such　a　science　obviously　corresponds　to　Comte's　social　dynamics；　and　the　comparative　method；　on　which　Comte　laid　so　much　emphasis；　is　the　principal　instrument　of　Lamprecht。

19。　　I　have　dwelt　on　the　fundamental　ideas　of　Lamprecht；　because　they　are　not　yet　widely　known　in　England；　and　because　his　system　is　the　ablest　product　of　the　sociological　school　of　hist