the high price of bullion-第15节

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twelve　to　sixteen　millions；　we　may　infer　that　the　whole



circulation　has　increased　one…third；　if　the　districts　in　which



bank…notes　circulate　have　neither　been　enlarged　nor　contracted。



The　notes　under　5l。　will　be　issued　in　proportion　as　the　metallic



currency　is　withdrawn　from　circulation；　and　will　be　further



augmented；　if　there　be　also　an　augmentation　of　notes　of　a　higher



denomination。



　　　　If　I　am　correct　in　this　view　of　the　subject；　that　the



increase　in　the　amount　of　our　currency　is　to　be　inferred　from　the



increased　amount　of　bank…notes　of　5　l。　and　upwards；　and　can　by　no



means　be　proved　by　an　increase　of　1　l。　and　2　l。　notes　which　have



been　substituted　in　the　place　of　the　exported　or　hoarded　guineas；



I　must　wholly　reject　the　calculations　of　Mr　Pearse；　because　they



are　made　on　the　supposition　that　every　increase　of　this



description　of　notes　is　an　increase　of　currency　to　that　amount。



When　it　is　considered　that　in　1797　there　were　no　notes　of　1　l。



and　2　l。　in　circulation；　but　that　their　place　was　wholly　filled



with　guineas；　and　that　since　that　period　there　have　been　no　less



than　seven　millions　issued；　partly　to　supply　the　place　of　our



exported　and　hoarded　guineas；　and　partly　to　keep　up　the



proportion　between　the　circulation　for　the　larger　and　for　the



smaller　payments；　we　shall　observe　to　what　errors　such　reasoning



may　lead。　I　can　consider　the　paper　in　question　of　no　authority



whatever　as　opposed　to　the　opinion　which　I　have　ventured　to　give；



namely；　that　an　unfavourable　balance　of　trade；　and　a　consequently



low　exchange；　may　in　all　cases　be　traced　to　a　relatively



redundant　and　cheap　currency。　*　But　if　the　reasoning　of　Mr　Pearse



were　not　incorrect　as　his　facts　are；　he　is　no　way　warranted　in



the　conclusions　which　he　has　drawn　from　them。



　　　　Mr　Pearse　states　the　increase　of　bank…notes　from　January；



1808；　to　Christmas；　1809；　to　have　been　from　17　1/2　to　18



millions；　or　500；000　l。；　the　exchange　with　Hamburgh　during　the



same　period　having　fallen　from　34s。　9g。　to　28s。　6g。　an　increase



in　the　amount　of　notes　of　less　than　three　per　cent；　and　a　fall　in



the　exchange　of　more　than　eighteen　per　cent。　But　from　whence　did



Mr　Pearse　obtain　this　information；　of　18　millions　of　bank…notes



only　being　in　circulation　at　Christmas　in　1809？　After　looking　at



every　return；　with　which　I　have　been　able　to　meet；　of　the　amount



of　bank…notes　in　circulation　at　the　end　of　1809；　I　cannot　but



conclude　that　Mr　Pearse's　statement　is　incorrect。　Mr　Mushet　in



his　tables　gives　four　returns　of　bank…notes　in　the　year。　In　the



last；　for　the　year　1809；　he　has　stated　the　amount　of　bank…notes



in　circulation







　at　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　19；742；998



　In　the　Appendix　to　the　Bullion　Report；　and　in　returns　lately



made　to　the　House　of　Commons；　the　amount　of　bank…notes　in



circulation　appears　to　have　been　on　December　12；　1809　　　　　　　　　



19；727；520







　On　the　1st　January；　1810　　　　　　　　　　　2；669；320



　On　the　7th　January；　1810　　　　　　　　　　19；528；030











　　　　For　many　months　previously　to　December　it　was　not　lower。　When



I　first　discovered　this　inaccuracy　I　thought　Mr　Pearse　might　have



omitted　the　bank　post　bills　in　both　estimates；　although　they　did



not　in　December；　1809；　exceed　880；880　l。；　but　on　looking　at　the



return　of　bank…notes　in　circulation；　including　bank　post　bills；



in　January；　1808；　I　find　Mr　Pearse　has　stated　it　larger　than　I



can　any　where　find　it：　indeed　his　estimate　exceeds　the　return



made　by　the　Bank　for　the　1st　of　January；　1808；　by　nearly　900；000



l。；　so　that　from　the　1st　of　January；　1808；　to　the　12th　of



December；　1809；　the　increase　was　from　16；619；240　to　19；727；520；　a



difference　of　more　than　three　millions；　instead　of　500；000；　as



stated　by　Mr　Pearse；　and　of　two　millions　if　Mr　Pearse's　statement



for　any　time　in　January；　1808；　be　correct。



　　　　Mr　Pearse's　statement　too；　that　from　January　1803；　to　the　end



of　1807；　the　amount　of　bank…notes　had　increased　from　16　and　a



half　to　eighteen　millions；　an　increase　of　a　million　and　a　half



appears　to　me　to　exceed　the　fact　by　half　a　million。　The　increase



of　notes　of　5　l。　and　upwards；　including　bank　post　bills；　did　not；



during　that　period；　exceed　150；000　l。　It　is　material　that　these



errors　should　be　pointed　out；　that　those　who　may；　in　spite　of



what　I　have　urged；　agree　in　principle　with　Mr　Pearse；　may　see



that　the　facts　of　the　case　do　not　warrant　the　conclusions　which



that　gentleman　has　drawn　from　them；　and；　indeed；　that　all



calculations　founded　on　the　particular　amount　of　banknotes　for　a



day；　or　for　a　week；　when　the　general　average　has　been　for　some



time　before；　or　some　time　after；　greater　or　less；　will　be　of



little　avail　in　overturning　a　theory　which　has　every　other　proof



of　its　tuth。　Such　I　consider　the　theory　which　asserts　that　the



unlimited　multiplication　of　a　currency　which　is　referrible　to　no



fixed　standard　may　and　must　produce　a　permanent　depression　of　the



exchange；　estimated　with　a　country　whose　currency　is　founded　on



such　standard。



　　　　Having　considered　the　weight　which　ought　to　be　attached　to　Mr



Pearse's　paper；　I　beg　the　reader's　attention　to　the　table　which　I



have　drawn　out　from　the　statements　in　tbe　Bullion　Report；　and



from　the　papers　which　have　since　been　presented　to　the　House　of



Commons。　I　request　him　to　compare　the　amount　of　the　circulation



of　the　larger　notes　with　the　variations　in　the　exchange；　and　I



trust　he　will　find　no　difficulty　in　reconciling　the　principle



maintained　by　me　with　the　actual　facts　of　the　case；　particularly



if　he　considers　that　the　operations　of　an　increased　currency　are



not　instantaneous；　but　require　some　interval　of　time　to　produce



their　full　effect；　…　that　a　rise　or　fal1　in　the　price　of　silver；



as　compared　with　gold；　alters　the　relative　value　of　the



currencies　of　England　and　Hamburgh；　and　therefore　makes　the



currency　of　one　or　other　relatively　redundant　and　cheap；…that　the



same　effect　is　produced；　as　I　have　already　stated；　by　an　abundant



or　deficient　harvest；　either　in　this　country　or　in　those



countries　with　which　we　trade；　or　by　any　other　addition　or



diminution　to　their　real　wealth；　which　by　altering　the　relative



proportion　between　commodities　and　money　alters　the　value　of　the



circulating　medium。　With　these　corrections；　I　have　no　fear　but



that　it　will　be　found　that　Mr　Pearse's　objections　may　be　refuted



without　having　recourse　to　the　abandonment　of　a　principle；　which；



if　yielded；　will　establish　the　mercantile　theory　of　exchange；　and



may　be　made　to　account　for　a　drain　of　circulating　medium；　so



great；　that　it　can　only　be　counteracted　by　locking　up　our　money



in　the　bank；　and　absolving　the　directors　from　the　obligation　of



paying　their　notes　in　specie。







Mr　Pearse's　statement；　as　presented　to　the　Bullion　Committee：







　　　　　　　　　　　　Total　of　Bank　Notes；　Millions；　Rate　of　Hambro'



Exchange







17th　February；　1797；　8　1/2；　35s　6g



Rose　Gradually　in　1797　and　1798　to；　13；　38s　0g



March　1799；　13　1/2；　37s　7g



After　this　period；　great　commercial　distress；　large　importation



of　corn；　heavy　subsidies；　and　the　Hambro'　Exchange　continued



falling；　and　on　the　2d　January；　1801　wasas　low　as；　　；　29s　8g



Between　the　end　of　the　year　1799　to　the　end　of　1802；　an　increased



quantity　of　1　l。　and　2　l。　notes　were　issued；　swelling　the　sum



total　to　all　notes　to；　13　1/2　to　16　1/2；　Fluctuation　from　33s　3g



to　29s　8g



From　January；　1803；　to　the　end　of　1807；　16　1/2　to　18；　Fluctuation



from　32s　10g　to　35s　10g



From　January；　1808；　to　Christmas　1809；　17　1/2　to　18；　Fall　from



34s　9g　to　28s　6g







The　rate　of　the　Hambro'　Exchange　is　taken　from　Lloyd's　list。







I　have　omitted　as　much　of　Mr　Pearse's　paper　as　regarded　the



amount　of　bank　notes　in　circulation　before　the　restriction　on



bank　payments；　because　whilst　the　public　possessed　the　power　of



obtaining　specie　for　their　notes；　the　exchange　could　not　put　be



momentarily　lowered　by　the　amount　of　the　bank　issues。











　　　　The　average　amount　of　bank　notes　from　the　year　1797　to　1809



inclusive；　in　the　following　table；　is　copied　from　the　Report　of



the　Bullion　Committee。　The　rates　of　exchange　are　extracted　from　a



list　presented　by　the　mint　to　parliament。　There　have　been　three



returns　made　to　parliament　by　the　Bank；　of　the　amount　of　their



notes　in　circulation　in　the　year　1810；　the　first　for　the　7th　and



12th　of　each　month；　the　second　a　weekly　return　from　the　19th



January；　1810；　to　28th　December；　and　the　third　also　a　weekly