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tubes will be wanted every six months。             Now on the 15th of June the total 

stock of tubes ready for use was 58;000; and the railways could not expect 

to get more than another 13;000 in the near future。                Unless the factories 

are able to do better (and their improvement depends on improvement in 

transport); railway repairs must again deteriorate; since the main source of 

materials for it in Russia; namely the dead 

     engines; will presently be exhausted。 

       On this there is only one thing to be said。          If; whether because we do 

not trade with them; or from some other cause; the Russians are unable to 

proceed even in this first stage of their programme; it means an indefinite 

postponement of the moment when Russia will be able to export anything; 

and;   consequently;   that   when   at   last   we   learn   that   we   need   Russia   as   a 

market; she will be a market willing to receive gifts; but unable to pay for 

anything at all。 And that is a state of affairs a great deal more serious to 

ourselves than to the Russians; who can; after all; live by wandering about 

their country and scratching the ground; whereas we depend on the sale of 

our manufactured goods for the possibility of buying the food we cannot 

grow ourselves。        If the Russians fail; their failure will affect not us alone。 

It   will;  by   depriving     her   of   a  market;    lessen    Germany's      power    of 

recuperation;   and   consequently  her   power   of   fulfilling   her   engagements。 

What; then; is to happen to France?            And; if we are to lose our market in 

Russia; and find very much weakened markets in Germany and France; we 

shall be faced with an ever…increasing burden of unemployment; with the 

growth; in fact; of the very conditions in which alone we shall ourselves 

be   unable    to  recover    from   the   war。   In   such    conditions;    upheaval    in 

England would be possible; and; for the dispassionate observer; there is a 

strange irony in the fact that the Communists desire that upheaval; and; at 

the same time; desire a rebirth of the Russian market which would tend to 

make   that   upheaval   unlikely;   while   those   who   most   fear   upheaval   are 

precisely those who urge us; by making recovery in Russia impossible; to 

improve the chances of collapse at home。              The peasants in Russia are not 

alone in wanting incompatible things。 



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THE CRISIS IN RUSSIA 



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