war and the future-第23节

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seeming　an　imaginative　alarmist　I　would　like　to　point　out　the
reasons　these　things　disclose　for　hurrying　this　war　to　a　decision
and　doing　our　utmost　to　arrange　the　world's　affairs　so　as　to　make
another　war　improbable。　　Already　these　serio…comic　Tanks；
weighing　something　over　twenty　tons　or　so；　have　gone　slithering
around　and　sliding　over　dead　and　wounded　men。　　That　is　not　an
incident　for　sensitive　minds　to　dwell　upon；　but　it　is　a　mere
little　child's　play　anticipation　of　what　the　big　land　ironclads
/that　are　bound　to　come　if　there　is　no　world　pacification/；
are　going　to　do。

What　lies　behind　the　Tank　depends　upon　this　fact；　there　is　no
definable　upward　limit　of　mass。　　Upon　that　I　would　lay　all　the
stress　possible；　because　everything　turns　upon　that。

You　cannot　make　a　land　ironclad　so　big　and　heavy　but　that　you
cannot　make　a　caterpillar　track　wide　enough　and　strong　enough　to
carry　it　forward。　　Tanks　are　quite　possible　that　will　carry
twenty…inch　or　twenty…five　inch　guns；　besides　minor　armament。
Such　Tanks　may　be　undesirable；　the　production　may　exceed　the
industrial　resources　of　any　empire　to　produce；　but　there　is　no
inherent　impossibility　in　such　things。　　There　are　not　even　the
same　limitations　as　to　draught　and　docking　accommodation　that
sets　bounds　to　the　size　of　battleships。　　It　follows；　therefore；
as　a　necessary　deduction　that　if　the　world's　affairs　are　so　left
at　the　end　of　the　war　that　the　race　of　armaments　continues；　that
Tank　will　develop　steadily　into　a　tremendous　instrument　of
warfare；　driven　by　engines　of　scores　of　thousands　of　horse…power；
tracking　on　a　track　scores　of　hundreds　of　yards　wide　and　weighing
hundreds　or　thousands　of　tons。　　Nothing　but　a　world　agreement　not
to　do　so　can　prevent　this　logical　development　of　the　land
ironclad。　　Such　a　structure　will　make　wheel…ruts　scores　of　feet
deep；　it　will　plough　up；　devastate　and　destroy　the　country　it
passes　over　altogether。

For　my　own　part　I　never　imagined　the　land　ironclad　idea　would　get
loose　into　war。　　I　thought　that　the　military　intelligence　was
essentially　unimaginative　and　that　such　an　aggressive　military
power　as　Germany；　dominated　by　military　people；　would　never
produce　anything　of　the　sort。　　I　thought　that　this　war　would　be
fought　out　without　Tanks　and　that　then　war　would　come　to　an　end。
For　of　course　it　is　mere　stupidity　that　makes　people　doubt　the
ultimate　ending　of　war。　　I　have　been　so　far　justified　in　these
expectations　of　mine；　that　it　is　not　from　military　sources　that
these　things　have　come。　　They　have　been　thrust　upon　the　soldiers
from　without。　　But　now　that　they　are　loose；　now　that　they　are　in
war；　we　have　to　face　their　full　possibilities；　to　use　our
advantage　in　them　and　press　on　to　the　end　of　the　war。　　In　support
of　a　photo…aero　directed　artillery；　even　our　present　Tanks　can　be
used　to　complete　an　invisible　offensive。　　We　shall　not　so　much
push　as　ram。　　It　is　doubtful　if　the　Germans　can　get　anything　of
the　sort　into　action　before　six　months　are　out。　　We　ought　to　get
the　war　on　to　German　soil　before　the　Tanks　have　grown　to　more
than　three　or　four　times　their　present　size。　　Then　it　will　not
matter　so　much　how　much　bigger　they　grow。　　It　will　be　the　German
landscape　that　will　suffer。

After　one　has　seen　the　actual　Tanks　it　is　not　very　difficult　to
close　one's　eyes　and　figure　the　sort　of　Tank　that　may　be　arguing
with　Germany　in　a　few　months'　time　about　the　restoration　of
Belgium　and　Serbia　and　France；　the　restoration　of　the　sunken
tonnage；　the　penalties　of　the　various　Zeppelin　and　submarine
murders；　the　freedom　of　seas　and　land　alike　from　piracy；　the
evacuation　of　all　Poland　including　Posen　and　Cracow；　and　the
guarantees　for　the　future　peace　of　Europe。　　The　machine　will　be
perhaps　as　big　as　a　destroyer　and　more　heavily　armed　and
equipped。　　It　will　swim　over　and　through　the　soil　at　a　pace　of
ten　or　twelve　miles　an　hour。　　In　front　of　it　will　be　corn；　land；
neat　woods；　orchards；　pasture；　gardens；　villages　and　towns。　　It
will　advance　upon　its　belly　with　a　swaying　motion；　devouring　the
ground　beneath　it。　　Behind　it　masses　of　soil　and　rock；　lumps　of
turf；　splintered　wood；　bits　of　houses；　occasional　streaks　of　red；
will　drop　from　its　track；　and　it　will　leave　a　wake；　six　or　seven
times　as　wide　as　a　high　road；　from　which　all　soil；　all
cultivation；　all　semblance　to　cultivated　or　cultivatable　land
will　have　disappeared。　　It　will　not　even　be　a　track　of　soil。　　It
will　be　a　track　of　subsoil　laid　bare。　　It　will　be　a　flayed　strip
of　nature。　　In　the　course　of　its　fighting　the　monster　may　have　to
turnabout。　　It　will　then　halt　and　spin　slowly　round；　grinding　out
an　arena　of　desolation　with　a　diameter　equal　to　its　length。　　If
it　has　to　retreat　and　advance　again　these　streaks　and　holes　of
destruction　will　increase　and　multiply。　　Behind　the　fighting　line
these　monsters　will　manoeuvre　to　and　fro；　destroying　the
land　for　all　ordinary　agricultural　purposes　for　ages　to　come。
The　first　imaginative　account　of　the　land　ironclad　that　was　ever
written　concluded　with　the　words；　〃They　are　the　/reductio　ad
absurdum/　of　war。〃　　They　are；　and　it　is　to　the　engineers；　the
ironmasters；　the　workers　and　the　inventive　talent　of　Great
Britain　and　France　that　we　must　look　to　ensure　that　it　is　in
Germany；　the　great　teacher　of　war；　that　this　demonstration　of
war's　ultimate　absurdity　is　completed。

For　forty　years　Frankenstein　Germany　invoked　war；　turned　every
development　of　material　and　social　science　to　aggressive　ends；
and　at　last　when　she　felt　the　time　was　ripe　she　let　loose　the　new
monster　that　she　had　made　of　war　to　cow　the　spirit　of　mankind。
She　set　the　thing　trampling　through　Belgium。　　She　cannot　grumble
if　at　last　it　comes　home；　stranger　and　more　dreadful　even　than
she　made　it；　trampling　the　German　towns　and　fields　with　German
blood　upon　it　and　its　eyes　towards　Berlin。

This　logical　development　of　the　Tank　idea　may　seem　a　gloomy
prospect　for　mankind。　　But　it　is　open　to　question　whether　the
tremendous　development　of　warfare　that　has　gone　on　in　the　last
two　years　does　after　all　open　a　prospect　of　unmitigated　gloom。
There　has　been　a　good　deal　of　cheap　and　despondent　sneering
recently　at　the　phrase；　〃The　war　that　will　end　war。〃　　It　is　still
possible　to　maintain　that　that　may　be　a　correct　description　of
this　war。　　It　has　to　be　remembered　that　war；　as　the　aeroplane　and
the　Tank　have　made　it；　has　already　become　an　impossible　luxury
for　any　barbaric　or　uncivilised　people。　　War　on　the　grade　that
has　been　achieved　on　the　Somme　predicates　an　immense
industrialism　behind　it。　　Of　all　the　States　in　the　world　only
four　can　certainly　be　said　to　be　fully　capable　of　sustaining　war
at　the　level　to　which　it　has　now　been　brought　upon　the　western
front。　　These　are　Britain；　France；　Germany；　and　the　United　States
of　America。　　Less　certainly　equal　to　the　effort　are　Italy；　Japan；
Russia；　and　Austria。　　These　eight　powers　are　the　only　powers
/capable　of　warfare　under　modern　conditions。/　　Five　are
already　Allies　and　one　is　incurably　pacific。　　There　is　no　other
power　or　people　in　the　world　that　can　go　to　war　now　without　the
consent　and　connivance　of　these　great　powers。　　If　we　consider
their　alliances；　we　may　count　it　that　the　matter　rests　now
between　two　groups　of　Allies　and　one　neutral　power。　　So　that
while　on　the　one　hand　the　development　of　modern　warfare　of　which
the　Tank　is　the　present　symbol　opens　a　prospect　of　limitless
senseless　destruction；　it　opens　on　the　other　hand　a　prospect　of
organised　world　control。　　This　Tank　development　must　ultimately
bring　the　need　of　a　real　permanent　settlement　within　the　compass
of　the　meanest　of　diplomatic　intelligences。　　A　peace　that　will
restore　competitive　armaments　has　now　become　a　less　desirable
prospect　for　everyone　than　a　continuation　of　the　war。　　Things
were　bad　enough　before；　when　the　land　forces　were　still　in　a
primitive　phase　of　infantry；　cavalry　and　artillery；　and　when　the
only　real　race　to　develop　monsters　and　destructors　was　for　sea
power。　　But　the　race　for　sea　power　before　1914　was　mere　child's
play　to　the　breeding　of　engineering　monstrosities　for　land
warfare　that　must　now　follow　any　indeterminate　peace　settlement。
I　am　no　blind　believer　in　the　wisdom　of　mankind；　but　I　cannot
believe　that　men　are　so　insensate　and　headstrong　as　to　miss　the
plain　omens　of　the　present　situation。

So　that　after　all　the　cheerful　amusement　the　sight　of　a　Tank
causes　may　not　be　so　very　unreasonable。　　These　things　may　be　no
more　than　one　of　those　penetrating　flashes　of　wit　that　will
sometimes　light　up　and　dispel　the　contentions　of　an　angry　man。
If　they　are　not　that；　then　they　are　the　grimmest　jest　that　ever
set　men　grinning。　　Wait　and　see；　if　you　do　not　believe　me。


HOW　PEOPLE　THINK　ABOUT　THE　WAR


I。　DO　THEY　REALLY　THINK　AT　ALL？
All　human　affairs　are　mental　affairs；　the　bright　ideas　of　to…day
are　the　realities　of　to…morrow。　　The　real　history　of　mankind　is
the　history　of　how　ideas　have　arisen；　how　they　have　taken
possession　of　men's　minds；　how　they　have　struggled；　altered；
proliferated；　decayed。　　There　is　nothing　in　this　war　at　all　but　a
conflict　of　ideas；　traditions；　and　mental　habits。　　The　German
Will　clothed　in　conceptions　of　aggression　and　f