essays and lectures-第7节

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instruments　of　verification。　　For　I　think　it　is　possible　to　discern

in　some　of　the　mystic　speculations　of　the　early　Greek　thinkers　that

desire　to　discover　what　is　that　'invariable　existence　of　which

there　are　variable　states；'　and　to　incorporate　it　in　some　one

formula　of　law　which　may　serve　to　explain　the　different

manifestations　of　all　organic　bodies；　MAN　INCLUDED；　which　is　the

germ　of　the　philosophy　of　history；　the　germ　indeed　of　an　idea　of

which　it　is　not　too　much　to　say　that　on　it　any　kind　of　historical

criticism；　worthy　of　the　name；　must　ultimately　rest。



For　the　very　first　requisite　for　any　scientific　conception　of

history　is　the　doctrine　of　uniform　sequence：　　in　other　words；　that

certain　events　having　happened；　certain　other　events　corresponding

to　them　will　happen　also；　that　the　past　is　the　key　of　the　future。



Now　at　the　birth　of　this　great　conception　science；　it　is　true；

presided；　yet　religion　it　was　which　at　the　outset　clothed　it　in　its

own　garb；　and　familiarised　men　with　it　by　appealing　to　their　hearts

first　and　then　to　their　intellects；　knowing　that　at　the　beginning

of　things　it　is　through　the　moral　nature；　and　not　through　the

intellectual；　that　great　truths　are　spread。



So　in　Herodotus；　who　may　be　taken　as　a　representative　of　the

orthodox　tone　of　thought；　the　idea　of　the　uniform　sequence　of　cause

and　effect　appears　under　the　theological　aspect　of　Nemesis　and

Providence；　which　is　really　the　scientific　conception　of　law；　only

it　is　viewed　from　an　ETHICAL　standpoint。



Now　in　Thucydides　the　philosophy　of　history　rests　on　the

probability；　which　the　uniformity　of　human　nature　affords　us；　that

the　future　will　in　the　course　of　human　things　resemble　the　past；　if

not　reproduce　it。　　He　appears　to　contemplate　a　recurrence　of　the

phenomena　of　history　as　equally　certain　with　a　return　of　the

epidemic　of　the　Great　Plague。



Notwithstanding　what　German　critics　have　written　on　the　subject；　we

must　beware　of　regarding　this　conception　as　a　mere　reproduction　of

that　cyclic　theory　of　events　which　sees　in　the　world　nothing　but

the　regular　rotation　of　Strophe　and　Antistrophe；　in　the　eternal

choir　of　life　and　death。



For；　in　his　remarks　on　the　excesses　of　the　Corcyrean　Revolution；

Thucydides　distinctly　rests　his　idea　of　the　recurrence　of　history

on　the　psychological　grounds　of　the　general　sameness　of　mankind。



'The　sufferings；'　he　says；　'which　revolution　entailed　upon　the

cities　were　many　and　terrible；　such　as　have　occurred　and　always

will　occurs　as　long　as　human　nature　remains　the　same；　though　in　a

severer　or　milder　form；　and　varying　in　their　symptoms　according　to

the　variety　of　the　particular　cases。



'In　peace　and　prosperity　states　and　individuals　have　better

sentiments；　because　they　are　not　confronted　with　imperious

necessities；　but　war　takes　away　the　easy　supply　of　men's　wants；　and

so　proves　a　hard　taskmaster；　which　brings　most　men's　characters　to

a　level　with　their　fortunes。'







CHAPTER　IV







IT　is　evident　that　here　Thucydides　is　ready　to　admit　the　variety　of

manifestations　which　external　causes　bring　about　in　their　workings

on　the　uniform　character　of　the　nature　of　man。　　Yet；　after　all　is

said；　these　are　perhaps　but　very　general　statements：　　the　ordinary

effects　of　peace　and　war　are　dwelt　on；　but　there　is　no　real

analysis　of　the　immediate　causes　and　general　laws　of　the　phenomena

of　life；　nor　does　Thucydides　seem　to　recognise　the　truth　that　if

humanity　proceeds　in　circles；　the　circles　are　always　widening。



Perhaps　we　may　say　that　with　him　the　philosophy　of　history　is

partly　in　the　metaphysical　stage；　and　see；　in　the　progress　of　this

idea　from　Herodotus　to　Polybius；　the　exemplification　of　the　Comtian

Law　of　the　three　stages　of　thought；　the　theological；　the

metaphysical；　and　the　scientific：　　for　truly　out　of　the　vagueness

of　theological　mysticism　this　conception　which　we　call　the

Philosophy　of　History　was　raised　to　a　scientific　principle；

according　to　which　the　past　was　explained　and　the　future　predicted

by　reference　to　general　laws。



Now；　just　as　the　earliest　account　of　the　nature　of　the　progress　of

humanity　is　to　be　found　in　Plato；　so　in　him　we　find　the　first

explicit　attempt　to　found　a　universal　philosophy　of　history　upon

wide　rational　grounds。　　Having　created　an　ideally　perfect　state；

the　philosopher　proceeds　to　give　an　elaborate　theory　of　the　complex

causes　which　produce　revolutions；　of　the　moral　effects　of　various

forms　of　government　and　education；　of　the　rise　of　the　criminal

classes　and　their　connection　with　pauperism；　and；　in　a　word；　to

create　history　by　the　deductive　method　and　to　proceed　from　A　PRIORI

psychological　principles　to　discover　the　governing　laws　of　the

apparent　chaos　of　political　life。



There　have　been　many　attempts　since　Plato　to　deduce　from　a　single

philosophical　principle　all　the　phenomena　which　experience

subsequently　verifies　for　us。　　Fichte　thought　he　could　predict　the

world…plan　from　the　idea　of　universal　time。　　Hegel　dreamed　he　had

found　the　key　to　the　mysteries　of　life　in　the　development　of

freedom；　and　Krause　in　the　categories　of　being。　　But　the　one

scientific　basis　on　which　the　true　philosophy　of　history　must　rest

is　the　complete　knowledge　of　the　laws　of　human　nature　in　all　its

wants；　its　aspirations；　its　powers　and　its　tendencies：　　and　this

great　truth；　which　Thucydides　may　be　said　in　some　measure　to　have

apprehended；　was　given　to　us　first　by　Plato。



Now；　it　cannot　be　accurately　said　of　this　philosopher　that　either

his　philosophy　or　his　history　is　entirely　and　simply　A　PRIORI。　　ON

EST　DE　SON　SIECLE　MEME　QUAND　ON　Y　PROTESTE；　and　so　we　find　in　him

continual　references　to　the　Spartan　mode　of　life；　the　Pythagorean

system；　the　general　characteristics　of　Greek　tyrannies　and　Greek

democracies。　　For　while；　in　his　account　of　the　method　of　forming　an

ideal　state；　he　says　that　the　political　artist　is　indeed　to　fix　his

gaze　on　the　sun　of　abstract　truth　in　the　heavens　of　the　pure

reason；　but　is　sometimes　to　turn　to　the　realisation　of　the　ideals

on　earth：　　yet；　after　all；　the　general　character　of　the　Platonic

method；　which　is　what　we　are　specially　concerned　with；　is

essentially　deductive　and　A　PRIORI。　　And　he　himself；　in　the

building　up　of　his　Nephelococcygia；　certainly　starts　with　a　＇Greek

text　which　cannot　be　reproduced＇；　making　a　clean　sweep　of　all

history　and　all　experience；　and　it　was　essentially　as　an　A　PRIORI

theorist　that　he　is　criticised　by　Aristotle；　as　we　shall　see　later。



To　proceed　to　closer　details　regarding　the　actual　scheme　of　the

laws　of　political　revolutions　as　drawn　out　by　Plato；　we　must　first

note　that　the　primary　cause　of　the　decay　of　the　ideal　state　is　the

general　principle；　common　to　the　vegetable　and　animal　worlds　as

well　as　to　the　world　of　history；　that　all　created　things　are　fated

to　decay　…　a　principle　which；　though　expressed　in　the　terms　of　a

mere　metaphysical　abstraction；　is　yet　perhaps　in　its　essence

scientific。　　For　we　too　must　hold　that　a　continuous　redistribution

of　matter　and　motion　is　the　inevitable　result　of　the　nominal

persistence　of　Force；　and　that　perfect　equilibrium　is　as　impossible

in　politics　as　it　certainly　is　in　physics。



The　secondary　causes　which　mar　the　perfection　of　the　Platonic　'city

of　the　sun'　are　to　be　found　in　the　intellectual　decay　of　the　race

consequent　on　injudicious　marriages　and　in　the　Philistine　elevation

of　physical　achievements　over　mental　culture；　while　the

hierarchical　succession　of　Timocracy　and　Oligarchy；　Democracy　and

Tyranny；　is　dwelt　on　at　great　length　and　its　causes　analysed　in　a

very　dramatic　and　psychological　manner；　if　not　in　that　sanctioned

by　the　actual　order　of　history。



And　indeed　it　is　apparent　at　first　sight　that　the　Platonic

succession　of　states　represents　rather　the　succession　of　ideas　in

the　philosophic　mind　than　any　historical　succession　of　time。



Aristotle　meets　the　whole　simply　by　an　appeal　to　facts。　　If　the

theory　of　the　periodic　decay　of　all　created　things；　he　urges；　be

scientific；　it　must　be　universal；　and　so　true　of　all　the　other

states　as　well　as　of　the　ideal。　　Besides；　a　state　usually　changes

into　its　contrary　and　not　to　the　form　next　to　it；　so　the　ideal

state　would　not　change　into　Timocracy；　while　Oligarchy；　more　often

than　Tyranny；　succeeds　Democracy。　　Plato；　besides；　says　nothing　of

what　a　Tyranny　would　change　to。　　According　to　the　cycle　theory　it

ought　to　pass　into　the　ideal　state　again；　but　as　a　fact　one　Tyranny

is　changed　into　another　as　at　Sicyon；　or　into　a　Democracy　as　at

Syracuse；　or　into　an　Aristocracy　as　at　Carthage。　　The　example　of

Sicily；　too；　shows　that　an　Oligarchy　is　often　followed　by　a

Tyranny；　as　at　Leontini　and　Gela。　　Besides；　it　is　absurd　to

represent　greed　as　the　chief　motive　of　decay；　or　to　talk　of　avarice

as　the　root　of　Oligarchy；　when　in　nearly　all　true　oligarchies

money…making　is　forbidden　by　law。　　And　finally　the　Platonic　theory

ne