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instruments of verification。  For I think it is possible to discern

in some of the mystic speculations of the early Greek thinkers that

desire to discover what is that 'invariable existence of which

there are variable states;' and to incorporate it in some one

formula of law which may serve to explain the different

manifestations of all organic bodies; MAN INCLUDED; which is the

germ of the philosophy of history; the germ indeed of an idea of

which it is not too much to say that on it any kind of historical

criticism; worthy of the name; must ultimately rest。



For the very first requisite for any scientific conception of

history is the doctrine of uniform sequence:  in other words; that

certain events having happened; certain other events corresponding

to them will happen also; that the past is the key of the future。



Now at the birth of this great conception science; it is true;

presided; yet religion it was which at the outset clothed it in its

own garb; and familiarised men with it by appealing to their hearts

first and then to their intellects; knowing that at the beginning

of things it is through the moral nature; and not through the

intellectual; that great truths are spread。



So in Herodotus; who may be taken as a representative of the

orthodox tone of thought; the idea of the uniform sequence of cause

and effect appears under the theological aspect of Nemesis and

Providence; which is really the scientific conception of law; only

it is viewed from an ETHICAL standpoint。



Now in Thucydides the philosophy of history rests on the

probability; which the uniformity of human nature affords us; that

the future will in the course of human things resemble the past; if

not reproduce it。  He appears to contemplate a recurrence of the

phenomena of history as equally certain with a return of the

epidemic of the Great Plague。



Notwithstanding what German critics have written on the subject; we

must beware of regarding this conception as a mere reproduction of

that cyclic theory of events which sees in the world nothing but

the regular rotation of Strophe and Antistrophe; in the eternal

choir of life and death。



For; in his remarks on the excesses of the Corcyrean Revolution;

Thucydides distinctly rests his idea of the recurrence of history

on the psychological grounds of the general sameness of mankind。



'The sufferings;' he says; 'which revolution entailed upon the

cities were many and terrible; such as have occurred and always

will occurs as long as human nature remains the same; though in a

severer or milder form; and varying in their symptoms according to

the variety of the particular cases。



'In peace and prosperity states and individuals have better

sentiments; because they are not confronted with imperious

necessities; but war takes away the easy supply of men's wants; and

so proves a hard taskmaster; which brings most men's characters to

a level with their fortunes。'







CHAPTER IV







IT is evident that here Thucydides is ready to admit the variety of

manifestations which external causes bring about in their workings

on the uniform character of the nature of man。  Yet; after all is

said; these are perhaps but very general statements:  the ordinary

effects of peace and war are dwelt on; but there is no real

analysis of the immediate causes and general laws of the phenomena

of life; nor does Thucydides seem to recognise the truth that if

humanity proceeds in circles; the circles are always widening。



Perhaps we may say that with him the philosophy of history is

partly in the metaphysical stage; and see; in the progress of this

idea from Herodotus to Polybius; the exemplification of the Comtian

Law of the three stages of thought; the theological; the

metaphysical; and the scientific:  for truly out of the vagueness

of theological mysticism this conception which we call the

Philosophy of History was raised to a scientific principle;

according to which the past was explained and the future predicted

by reference to general laws。



Now; just as the earliest account of the nature of the progress of

humanity is to be found in Plato; so in him we find the first

explicit attempt to found a universal philosophy of history upon

wide rational grounds。  Having created an ideally perfect state;

the philosopher proceeds to give an elaborate theory of the complex

causes which produce revolutions; of the moral effects of various

forms of government and education; of the rise of the criminal

classes and their connection with pauperism; and; in a word; to

create history by the deductive method and to proceed from A PRIORI

psychological principles to discover the governing laws of the

apparent chaos of political life。



There have been many attempts since Plato to deduce from a single

philosophical principle all the phenomena which experience

subsequently verifies for us。  Fichte thought he could predict the

world…plan from the idea of universal time。  Hegel dreamed he had

found the key to the mysteries of life in the development of

freedom; and Krause in the categories of being。  But the one

scientific basis on which the true philosophy of history must rest

is the complete knowledge of the laws of human nature in all its

wants; its aspirations; its powers and its tendencies:  and this

great truth; which Thucydides may be said in some measure to have

apprehended; was given to us first by Plato。



Now; it cannot be accurately said of this philosopher that either

his philosophy or his history is entirely and simply A PRIORI。  ON

EST DE SON SIECLE MEME QUAND ON Y PROTESTE; and so we find in him

continual references to the Spartan mode of life; the Pythagorean

system; the general characteristics of Greek tyrannies and Greek

democracies。  For while; in his account of the method of forming an

ideal state; he says that the political artist is indeed to fix his

gaze on the sun of abstract truth in the heavens of the pure

reason; but is sometimes to turn to the realisation of the ideals

on earth:  yet; after all; the general character of the Platonic

method; which is what we are specially concerned with; is

essentially deductive and A PRIORI。  And he himself; in the

building up of his Nephelococcygia; certainly starts with a 'Greek

text which cannot be reproduced'; making a clean sweep of all

history and all experience; and it was essentially as an A PRIORI

theorist that he is criticised by Aristotle; as we shall see later。



To proceed to closer details regarding the actual scheme of the

laws of political revolutions as drawn out by Plato; we must first

note that the primary cause of the decay of the ideal state is the

general principle; common to the vegetable and animal worlds as

well as to the world of history; that all created things are fated

to decay … a principle which; though expressed in the terms of a

mere metaphysical abstraction; is yet perhaps in its essence

scientific。  For we too must hold that a continuous redistribution

of matter and motion is the inevitable result of the nominal

persistence of Force; and that perfect equilibrium is as impossible

in politics as it certainly is in physics。



The secondary causes which mar the perfection of the Platonic 'city

of the sun' are to be found in the intellectual decay of the race

consequent on injudicious marriages and in the Philistine elevation

of physical achievements over mental culture; while the

hierarchical succession of Timocracy and Oligarchy; Democracy and

Tyranny; is dwelt on at great length and its causes analysed in a

very dramatic and psychological manner; if not in that sanctioned

by the actual order of history。



And indeed it is apparent at first sight that the Platonic

succession of states represents rather the succession of ideas in

the philosophic mind than any historical succession of time。



Aristotle meets the whole simply by an appeal to facts。  If the

theory of the periodic decay of all created things; he urges; be

scientific; it must be universal; and so true of all the other

states as well as of the ideal。  Besides; a state usually changes

into its contrary and not to the form next to it; so the ideal

state would not change into Timocracy; while Oligarchy; more often

than Tyranny; succeeds Democracy。  Plato; besides; says nothing of

what a Tyranny would change to。  According to the cycle theory it

ought to pass into the ideal state again; but as a fact one Tyranny

is changed into another as at Sicyon; or into a Democracy as at

Syracuse; or into an Aristocracy as at Carthage。  The example of

Sicily; too; shows that an Oligarchy is often followed by a

Tyranny; as at Leontini and Gela。  Besides; it is absurd to

represent greed as the chief motive of decay; or to talk of avarice

as the root of Oligarchy; when in nearly all true oligarchies

money…making is forbidden by law。  And finally the Platonic theory

ne

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