essays and lectures-第11节

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rational　grounds；　but　in　the　case　of　events　which　we　know　to　have

happened　the　scientific　historian　will　not　rest　till　he　has

discovered　their　natural　causes　which；　for　instance；　in　the　case　of

the　wonderful　rise　of　the　Roman　Empire　…　the　most　marvellous　thing；

Polybius　says；　which　God　ever　brought　about　（16）　…　are　to　be　found

in　the　excellence　of　their　constitution　（＇Greek　text　which　cannot

be　reproduced＇）；　the　wisdom　of　their　advisers；　their　splendid

military　arrangements；　and　their　superstition　（＇Greek　text　which

cannot　be　reproduced＇）。　　For　while　Polybius　regarded　the　revealed

religion　as；　of　course；　objective　reality　of　truth；　（17）　he　laid

great　stress　on　its　moral　subjective　influence；　going；　in　one

passage　on　the　subject；　even　so　far　as　almost　to　excuse　the

introduction　of　the　supernatural　in　very　small　quantities　into

history　on　account　of　the　extremely　good　effect　it　would　have　on

pious　people。



But　perhaps　there　is　no　passage　in　the　whole　of　ancient　and　modern

history　which　breathes　such　a　manly　and　splendid　spirit　of

rationalism　as　one　preserved　to　us　in　the　Vatican　…　strange

resting…place　for　it！　…　in　which　he　treats　of　the　terrible　decay　of

population　which　had　fallen　on　his　native　land　in　his　own　day；　and

which　by　the　general　orthodox　public　was　regarded　as　a　special

judgment　of　God　sending　childlessness　on　women　as　a　punishment　for

the　sins　of　the　people。　　For　it　was　a　disaster　quite　without

parallel　in　the　history　of　the　land；　and　entirely　unforeseen　by　any

of　its　political…economy　writers　who；　on　the　contrary；　were　always

anticipating　that　danger　would　arise　from　an　excess　of　population

overrunning　its　means　of　subsistence；　and　becoming　unmanageable

through　its　size。　　Polybius；　however；　will　have　nothing　to　do　with

either　priest　or　worker　of　miracles　in　this　matter。　　He　will　not

even　seek　that　'sacred　Heart　of　Greece；'　Delphi；　Apollo's　shrine；

whose　inspiration　even　Thucydides　admitted　and　before　whose　wisdom

Socrates　bowed。　　How　foolish；　he　says；　were　the　man　who　on　this

matter　would　pray　to　God。　　We　must　search　for　the　rational　causes；

and　the　causes　are　seen　to　be　clear；　and　the　method　of　prevention

also。　　He　then　proceeds　to　notice　how　all　this　arose　from　the

general　reluctance　to　marriage　and　to　bearing　the　expense　of

educating　a　large　family　which　resulted　from　the　carelessness　and

avarice　of　the　men　of　his　day；　and　he　explains　on　entirely　rational

principles　the　whole　of　this　apparently　supernatural　judgment。



Now；　it　is　to　be　borne　in　mind　that　while　his　rejection　of　miracles

as　violation　of　inviolable　laws　is　entirely　A　PRIORI　…　for

discussion　of　such　a　matter　is；　of　course；　impossible　for　a

rational　thinker　…　yet　his　rejection　of　supernatural　intervention

rests　entirely　on　the　scientific　grounds　of　the　necessity　of

looking　for　natural　causes。　　And　he　is　quite　logical　in　maintaining

his　position　on　these　principles。　　For；　where　it　is　either

difficult　or　impossible　to　assign　any　rational　cause　for　phenomena；

or　to　discover　their　laws；　he　acquiesces　reluctantly　in　the

alternative　of　admitting　some　extra…natural　interference　which　his

essentially　scientific　method　of　treating　the　matter　has　logically

forced　on　him；　approving；　for　instance；　of　prayers　for　rain；　on　the

express　ground　that　the　laws　of　meteorology　had　not　yet　been

ascertained。　　He　would；　of　course；　have　been　the　first　to　welcome

our　modern　discoveries　in　the　matter。　　The　passage　in　question　is

in　every　way　one　of　the　most　interesting　in　his　whole　work；　not；　of

course；　as　signifying　any　inclination　on　his　part　to　acquiesce　in

the　supernatural；　but　because　it　shows　how　essentially　logical　and

rational　his　method　of　argument　was；　and　how　candid　and　fair　his

mind。



Having　now　examined　Polybius's　attitude　towards　the　supernatural

and　the　general　ideas　which　guided　his　research；　I　will　proceed　to

examine　the　method　he　pursued　in　his　scientific　investigation　of

the　complex　phenomena　of　life。　　For；　as　I　have　said　before　in　the

course　of　this　essay；　what　is　important　in　all　great　writers　is　not

so　much　the　results　they　arrive　at　as　the　methods　they　pursue。　　The

increased　knowledge　of　facts　may　alter　any　conclusion　in　history　as

in　physical　science；　and　the　canons　of　speculative　historical

credibility　must　be　acknowledged　to　appeal　rather　to　that

subjective　attitude　of　mind　which　we　call　the　historic　sense　than

to　any　formulated　objective　rules。　　But　a　scientific　method　is　a

gain　for　all　time；　and　the　true　if　not　the　only　progress　of

historical　criticism　consists　in　the　improvement　of　the　instruments

of　research。



Now　first；　as　regards　his　conception　of　history；　I　have　already

pointed　out　that　it　was　to　him　essentially　a　search　for　causes；　a

problem　to　be　solved；　not　a　picture　to　be　painted；　a　scientific

investigation　into　laws　and　tendencies；　not　a　mere　romantic　account

of　startling　incident　and　wondrous　adventure。　　Thucydides；　in　the

opening　of　his　great　work；　had　sounded　the　first　note　of　the

scientific　conception　of　history。　　'The　absence　of　romance　in　my

pages；'　he　says；　'will；　I　fear；　detract　somewhat　from　its　value；

but　I　have　written　my　work　not　to　be　the　exploit　of　a　passing　hour

but　as　the　possession　of　all　time。'　（18）　　Polybius　follows　with

words　almost　entirely　similar。　　If；　he　says；　we　banish　from　history

the　consideration　of　causes；　methods　and　motives　（＇Greek　text　which

cannot　be　reproduced＇）；　and　refuse　to　consider　how　far　the　result

of　anything　is　its　rational　consequent；　what　is　left　is　a　mere

＇Greek　text　which　cannot　be　reproduced＇；　not　a　＇Greek　text　which

cannot　be　reproduced＇；　an　oratorical　essay　which　may　give　pleasure

for　the　moment；　but　which　is　entirely　without　any　scientific　value

for　the　explanation　of　the　future。　　Elsewhere　he　says　that　'history

robbed　of　the　exposition　of　its　causes　and　laws　is　a　profitless

thing；　though　it　may　allure　a　fool。'　　And　all　through　his　history

the　same　point　is　put　forward　and　exemplified　in　every　fashion。



So　far　for　the　conception　of　history。　　Now　for　the　groundwork。　　As

regards　the　character　of　the　phenomena　to　be　selected　by　the

scientific　investigator；　Aristotle　had　laid　down　the　general

formula　that　nature　should　be　studied　in　her　normal　manifestations。

Polybius；　true　to　his　character　of　applying　explicitly　the

principles　implicit　in　the　work　of　others；　follows　out　the　doctrine

of　Aristotle；　and　lays　particular　stress　on　the　rational　and

undisturbed　character　of　the　development　of　the　Roman　constitution

as　affording　special　facilities　for　the　discovery　of　the　laws　of

its　progress。　　Political　revolutions　result　from　causes　either

external　or　internal。　　The　former　are　mere　disturbing　forces　which

lie　outside　the　sphere　of　scientific　calculation。　　It　is　the　latter

which　are　important　for　the　establishing　of　principles　and　the

elucidation　of　the　sequences　of　rational　evolution。



He　thus　may　be　said　to　have　anticipated　one　of　the　most　important

truths　of　the　modern　methods　of　investigation：　　I　mean　that

principle　which　lays　down　that　just　as　the　study　of　physiology

should　precede　the　study　of　pathology；　just　as　the　laws　of　disease

are　best　discovered　by　the　phenomena　presented　in　health；　so　the

method　of　arriving　at　all　great　social　and　political　truths　is　by

the　investigation　of　those　cases　where　development　has　been　normal；

rational　and　undisturbed。



The　critical　canon　that　the　more　a　people　has　been　interfered　with；

the　more　difficult　it　becomes　to　generalise　the　laws　of　its

progress　and　to　analyse　the　separate　forces　of　its　civilisation；　is

one　the　validity　of　which　is　now　generally　recognised　by　those　who

pretend　to　a　scientific　treatment　of　all　history：　　and　while　we

have　seen　that　Aristotle　anticipated　it　in　a　general　formula；　to

Polybius　belongs　the　honour　of　being　the　first　to　apply　it

explicitly　in　the　sphere　of　history。



I　have　shown　how　to　this　great　scientific　historian　the　motive　of

his　work　was　essentially　the　search　for　causes；　and　true　to　his

analytical　spirit　he　is　careful　to　examine　what　a　cause　really　is

and　in　what　part　of　the　antecedents　of　any　consequent　it　is　to　be

looked　for。　　To　give　an　illustration：　　As　regards　the　origin　of　the

war　with　Perseus；　some　assigned　as　causes　the　expulsion　of

Abrupolis　by　Perseus；　the　expedition　of　the　latter　to　Delphi；　the

plot　against　Eumenes　and　the　seizure　of　the　ambassadors　in　Boeotia；

of　these　incidents　the　two　former；　Polybius　points　out；　were　merely

the　pretexts；　the　two　latter　merely　the　occasions　of　the　war。　　The

war　was　really　a　legacy　left　to　Perseus　by　his　father；　who　was

determined　to　fight　it　out　with　Rome。　（19）



Here　as　elsewhere　he　is　not　originating　any　new　idea。　　Thucydides

had　pointed　out　the　difference　between　the　real　and　the　alleged

cause；　and　the　Aristotelian　dictum　about　revolutions；　＇Greek　text

which　cannot　be　reproduced＇；　draws　the　distinction　between　cause

and　occasion　with　the　brill