bickerstaff-partridge papers(比克一帕特拉奇文件)-第1节
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The Bickerstaff…Partridge Papers
The Bickerstaff…
Partridge Papers
Jonathan Swift
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The Bickerstaff…Partridge Papers
PREDICTIONS FOR THE YEAR 1708
Wherein the month； and day of the month are set down； the persons
named； and the great actions and events of next year particularly related；
as will come to pass。
Written to prevent the people of England from being farther imposed
on by vulgar almanack…makers。
By Isaac Bickerstaff； Esq。
I have long consider'd the gross abuse of astrology in this kingdom；
and upon debating the matter with myself； I could not possibly lay the
fault upon the art； but upon those gross impostors； who set up to be the
artists。 I know several learned men have contended that the whole is a
cheat； that it is absurd and ridiculous to imagine； the stars can have any
influence at all upon human actions； thoughts； or inclinations： And
whoever has not bent his studies that way； may be excused for thinking so；
when he sees in how wretched a manner that noble art is treated by a few
mean illiterate traders between us and the stars； who import a yearly stock
of nonsense； lyes； folly； and impertinence； which they offer to the world as
genuine from the planets； tho' they descend from no greater a height than
their own brains。
I intend in a short time to publish a large and rational defence of this
art； and therefore shall say no more in its justification at present； than that
it hath been in all ages defended by many learned men； and among the rest
by Socrates himself； whom I look upon as undoubtedly the wisest of
uninspir'd mortals： To which if we add； that those who have condemned
this art； though otherwise learned； having been such as either did not apply
their studies this way； or at least did not succeed in their applications； their
testimony will not be of much weight to its disadvantage； since they are
liable to the common objection of condemning what they did not
understand。
Nor am I at all offended； or think it an injury to the art； when I see the
common dealers in it； the students in astrology； the philomaths； and the
rest of that tribe； treated by wise men with the utmost scorn and contempt；
but rather wonder； when I observe gentlemen in the country； rich enough
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to serve the nation in parliament； poring in Partridge's almanack； to find
out the events of the year at home and abroad； not daring to propose a
hunting…match； till Gadbury or he have fixed the weather。
I will allow either of the two I have mentioned； or any other of the
fraternity； to be not only astrologers； but conjurers too； if I do not produce
a hundred instances in all their almanacks； to convince any reasonable
man； that they do not so much as understand common grammar and syntax；
that they are not able to spell any word out of the usual road； nor even in
their prefaces write common sense or intelligible English。 Then for their
observations and predictions； they are such as will equally suit any age or
country in the world。 〃This month a certain great person will be threatened
with death or sickness。〃 This the news…papers will tell them； for there we
find at the end of the year； that no month passes without the death of some
person of note； and it would be hard if it should be otherwise； when there
are at least two thousand persons of not in this kingdom； many of them old；
and the almanack…maker has the liberty of chusing the sickliest season of
the year where he may fix his prediction。 Again； 〃This month an eminent
clergyman will be preferr'd；〃 of which there may be some hundreds half of
them with one foot in the grave。 Then 〃such a planet in such a house
shews great machinations； plots and conspiracies； that may in time be
brought to light：〃 After which； if we hear of any discovery； the astrologer
gets the honour； if not； his prediction still stands good。 And at last； 〃God
preserve King William from all his open and secret enemies； Amen。〃
When if the King should happen to have died； the astrologer plainly
foretold it； otherwise it passes but for the pious ejaculation of a loyal
subject： Though it unluckily happen'd in some of their almanacks； that
poor King William was pray'd for many months after he was dead；
because it fell out that he died about the beginning of the year。
To mention no more of their impertinent predictions： What have we to
do with their advertisements about pills and drink for the venereal disease？
Or their mutual quarrels in verse and prose of Whig and Tory； wherewith
the stars have little to do？
Having long observed and lamented these； and a hundred other abuses
of this art； too tedious to repeat； I resolved to proceed in a new way； which
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I doubt not will be to the general satisfaction of the kingdom： I can this
year produce but a specimen of what I design for the future； having
employ'd most part of my time in adjusting and correcting the calculations
I made some years past； because I would offer nothing to the world of
which I am not as fully satisfied； as that I am now alive。 For these two last
years I have not failed in above one or two particulars； and those of no
very great moment。 I exactly foretold the miscarriage at Toulon； with all
its particulars； and the loss of Admiral Shovel； tho' I was mistaken as to
the day； placing that accident about thirty…six hours sooner than it happen'd；
but upon reviewing my schemes； I quickly found the cause of that error。 I
likewise foretold the Battle of Almanza to the very day and hour； with the
loss on both sides； and the consequences thereof。 All which I shewed to
some friends many months before they happened； that is； I gave them
papers sealed up； to open at such a time； after which they were at liberty to
read them； and there they found my predictions true in every article；
except one or two； very minute。
As for the few following predictions I now offer the world； I forbore to
publish them till I had perused the several almanacks for the year we are
now enter'd on。 I find them in all the usual strain； and I beg the reader will
compare their manner with mine： And here I make bold to tell the world；
that I lay the whole credit of my art upon the truth of these predictions；
and I will be content； that Partridge； and the rest of his clan； may hoot me
for a cheat and impostor； if I fail in any singular particular of moment。 I
believe； any man who reads this paper； will look upon me to be at least a
person of as much honesty and understanding； as a common maker of
almanacks。 I do not lurk in the dark； I am not wholly unknown in the
world； I have set my name at length； to be a mark of infamy to mankind； if
they shall find I deceive them。
In one thing I must desire to be forgiven； that I talk more sparingly of
home…affairs： As it will be imprudence to discover secrets of state； so it
would be dangerous to my person； but in smaller matters； and that are not
of publick consequence； I shall be very free； and the truth of my
conjectures will as much appear from those as the other。 As for the most
signal events abroad in France； Flanders； Italy and Spain； I shall make no
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scruple to predict them in plain terms： Some of them are of importance；
and I hope I shall seldom mistake the day they will happen； therefore； I
think good to inform the reader； that I all along make use of the Old Style
observed in England； which I desire he will compare with that of the
news…papers； at the time they relate the actions I mention。
I must add one word more： I know it hath been the opinion of several
of the learned； who think well enough of the true art of astrology； That the
star
