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value　of　the　agricultural　products　which　are　exported；　and　that



thereby　at　times　suddenly　an　extraordinary　exportation　of　precious



metals　is　occasioned；　whereby　the　economy　of　the　agricultural



nation；　especially　if　its　internal　interchange　is　chiefly　based　on



paper　circulation；　falls　into　confusion；　and　national　calamities



are　the　result。



　　　　The　popular　theory　maintains　that　if　we　provide　ourselves　with



the　precious　metals　in　the　same　manner　as　every　other　article；　it



is　in　the　main　indifferent　whether　large　or　small　quantities　of



precious　metals　are　in　circulation；　as　it　merely　depends　on　the



relation　of　the　price　of　any　article　in　exchange　whether　that



article　shall　be　cheap　or　dear；　a　derangement　in　the　rate　of



exchange　acts　simply　like　a　premium　on　a　larger　exportation　of



goods　from　that　country；　in　favour　of　which　it　oscillates　from　time



to　time：　consequently　the　stock　of　metallic　money　and　the　balance



between　the　imports　and　exports；　as　well　as　all　the　other



economical　circumstances　of　the　nation；　would　regulate　themselves



in　the　safest　and　best　manner　by　the　operation　of　the　natural



course　of　things。



　　　　This　argument　is　perfectly　correct　as　respects　the　internal



interchange　of　a　nation；　it　is　demonstrated　in　the　commercial



intercourse　between　town　and　town；　between　town　and　country



districts；　between　province　and　province；　as　in　the　union　between



State　and　State。　Any　political　economist　would　be　deserving　of　pity



who　believed　that　the　balance　of　the　mutual　imports　and　exports



between　the　various　states　of　the　American　Union　or　the　German



Zollverein；　or　between　England；　Scotland；　and　Ireland；　can　be



regulated　better　through　State　regulations　and　laws　than　through



free　interchange。　On　the　hypothesis　that　a　similar　union　existed



between　the　various　states　and　nations　of　the　earth；　the　argument



of　the　theory　of　trusting　to　the　natural　course　of　things　would　be



quite　consistent。　Nothing；　however；　is　more　contrary　to　experience



than　to　suppose　under　the　existing　conditions　of　the　world　that　in



international　exchange　things　act　with　similar　effect。



　　　　The　imports　and　exports　of　independent　nations　are　regulated



and　controlled　at　present　not　by　what　the　popular　theory　calls　the



natural　course　of　things；　but　mostly　by　the　commercial　policy　and



the　power　of　the　nation；　by　the　influence　of　these　on　the



conditions　of　the　world　and　on　foreign　countries　and　peoples；　by



colonial　possessions　and　internal　credit　establishments；　or　by　war



and　peace。　Here；　accordingly；　all　conditions　shape　themselves　in　an



entirely　different　manner　than　between　societies　which　are　united



by　political；　legal；　and　administrative　bonds　in　a　state　of



unbroken　peace　and　of　perfect　unity　of　interests。



　　　　Let　us　take　into　consideration　as　an　example　the　conditions



between　England　and　North　America。　If　England　from　time　to　time



throws　large　masses　of　manufactured　goods　on　to　the　North　American



market；　if　the　Bank　of　England　stimulates　or　restricts；　in　an



extraordinary　degree；　the　exports　to　North　America　and　the　credit



granted　to　her　by　its　raising　or　lowering　its　discount　rates；　if；



in　addition　to　and　as　a　consequence　of　this　extraordinary　glut　of



the　American　market　for　manufactured　goods；　it　happens　that　the



English　manufactured　goods　can　be　obtained　cheaper　in　North　America



than　in　England；　nay；　sometimes　much　below　the　cost　price　of



production；　if　thus　North　America　gets　into　a　state　of　perpetual



indebtedness　and　of　an　unfavourable　condition　of　exchange　towards



England；　yet　would　this　disorganised　state　of　things　readily



rectify　itself　under　a　state　of　perfectly　unrestricted　exchange



between　the　two　countries。　North　America　produces　tobacco；　timber；



corn；　and　all　sorts　of　means　of　subsistence　very　much　cheaper　than



England　does。　The　more　English　manufactured　goods　go　to　North



America；　the　greater　are　the　means　and　inducements　to　the　American



planter　to　produce　commodities　of　value　sufficient　to　exchange　for



them；　the　more　credit　is　given　to　him　the　greater　is　the　impulse　to



procure　for　himself　the　means　of　discharging　his　liabilities；　the



more　the　rate　of　exchange　on　England　is　to　the　disadvantage　of



North　America；　the　greater　is　the　inducement　to　export　American



agricultural　products；　and　hence　the　more　successful　will　be　the



competition　of　the　American　agriculturist　in　the　English　produce



market。



　　　　In　consequence　of　these　exportations　the　adverse　rate　of



exchange　would　speedily　rectify　itself；　indeed；　it　could　not　even



reach　any　very　unfavourable　point；　because　the　certain　anticipation



in　North　America　that　the　indebtedness　which　had　been　contracted



through　the　large　importation　of　manufactured　goods　in　the　course



of　the　present　year；　would　equalise　itself　through　the　surplus



production　and　increased　exports　of　the　coming　year；　would　be



followed　by　easier　accommodation　in　the　money　market　and　in　credit。



　　　　Such　would　be　the　state　of　things　if　the　interchange　between



the　English　manufacturer　and　the　American　agriculturist　were　as



little　restricted　as　the　interchange　between　the　English



manufacturer　and　the　Irish　agriculturist　is。　But　they　are　and　must



be　different：　if　England　imposes　a　duty　on　American　tobacco　of　from



five　hundred　to　one　thousand　per　cent；　if　she　renders　the



importation　of　American　timber　impossible　by　her　tariffs；　and



admits　the　American　means　of　subsistence　only　in　the　event　of



famine；　for　at　present　the　American　agricultural　production　cannot



balance　itself　with　the　American　consumption　of　English



manufactured　goods；　nor　can　the　debt　incurred　for　those　goods　be



liquidated　by　agricultural　products；　at　present　the　American



exports　to　England　are　limited　by　narrow　bounds；　while　the　English



exports　to　North　America　are　practically　unlimited；　the　rate　of



exchange　between　both　countries　under　such　circumstances　cannot



equalise　itself；　and　the　indebtedness　of　America　towards　England



must　be　discharged　by　exports　of　bullion　to　the　latter　country。



　　　　These　exports　of　bullion；　however；　as　they　undermine　the



American　system　of　paper　circulation；　necessarily　lead　to　the　ruin



of　the　credit　of　the　American　banks；　and　therewith　to　general



revolutions　in　the　prices　of　landed　property　and　of　the　goods　in



circulation；　and　especially　to　those　general　confusions　of　prices



and　credit　which　derange　and　overturn　the　economy　of　the　nation；



and　with　which；　we　may　observe；　that　the　North　American　free　States



are　visited　whenever　they　have　found　them　selves　unable　to　restore



a　balance　between　their　imports　and　their　exports　by　S　tate　tariff



regulations。



　　　　It　cannot　afford　any　great　consolation　to　the　North　American



that　in　consequence　of　bankruptcies　and　diminished　consumption；　the



imports　and　exports　between　both　countries　are　at　a　later　period



restored　to　a　tolerable　proportion　to　one　another。　For　the



destruction　and　convulsions　of　commerce　and　in　credit；　as　well　as



the　reduction　in　consumption；　are　attended　with　disadvantages　to



the　welfare　and　happiness　of　individuals　and　to　public　order；　from



which　one　cannot　very　quickly　recover　and　the　frequent　repetition



of　which　must　necessarily　leave　permanently；　ruinous　consequences。



　　　　Still　less　can　it　afford　any　consolation　to　the　North



Americans；　if　the　popular　theory　maintains　that　it　is　an



indifferent　matter　whether　large　or　small　quantities　of　precious



metals　are　in　circulation；　that　we　exchange　products　merely　for



products；　whether　this　exchange　is　made　by　means　of　large　or　small



quantities　of　metallic　circulation　is　of　no　importance　to



individuals。　To　the　producer　or　proprietor　it　certainly　may　be　of



no　consequence　whether　the　object　of　his　production　or　of　his



possession　is　worth　100　centimes　or　100　francs；　provided　always



that　he　can　procure　with　the　100　centimes　as　large　a　quantity　of



objects　of　necessity　and　of　enjoyment　as　he　can　with　the　100



francs。　But　low　or　high　prices　are　thus　a　matter　of　indifference



only　in　case　they　remain　on　the　same　footing　uninterruptedly　for　a



long　period　of　time。



　　　　If；　however；　they　fluctuate　frequently　and　violently；



disarrangements　arise　which　throw　the　economy　of　every　individual；



as　well　as　that　of　society；　into　confusion。　Whoever　has　purchased



raw　materials　at　high　prices；　cannot　under　low　prices；　by　the　sale



of　his　manufactured　article；　realise　again　that　sum　in　precious



metals　which　his　raw　materials　have　cost　him。　Whoever　has　bought　at



high　p