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is　raised；　and　with　it　the　capability　of　procuring　the　material



capital　required　for　his　improvements。



　　　　Adam　Smith　passes　over　these　conditions　of　the　exchangeable



value　of　land　in　silence。　J。　B。　Say；　on　the　contrary；　believes　that



the　exchangeable　value　of　land　is　of　little　importance；　inasmuch



as；　whether　its　value　be　high　or　low；　it　always　serves　equally　well



for　production。　It　is　sad　to　read　from　an　author　whom　his　German



translators　regard　as　a　universal　national　authority；　such



fundamentally　wrong　views　about　a　matter　which　affects　so　deeply



the　prosperity　of　nations。　We；　on　the　contrary；　believe　it



essential　to　maintain　that　there　is　no　surer　test　of　national



prosperity　than　the　rising　and　falling　of　the　value　of　the　land；



and　that　fluctuations　and　crises　in　that　are　to　be　classed　among



the　most　ruinous　of　all　plagues　that　can　befall　a　country。



　　　　Into　this　erroneous　view　the　school　has　also　been　led　by　its



predilection　for　the　theory　of　free　trade　（as　it　desires　the　latter



term　to　be　understood）。　For　nowhere　are　fluctuations　and　crises　in



the　value　and　price　of　land　greater　than　in　those　purely



agricultural　nations　which　are　in　unrestricted　commercial



intercourse　with　rich　and　powerful　manufacturing　and　commercial



nations。



　　　　Foreign　commerce　also；　it　is　true；　acts　on　the　increase　of　rent



and　the　value　of　land；　but　it　does　so　incomparably　less　decidedly；



uniformly；　and　permanently；　than　the　establishment　of　home



manufactures；　the　continuous　regular　increase　of　manufacturing



production；　and　the　exchange　of　home　manufacturing　products　for



home　agricultural　products。



　　　　So　long　as　the　agricultural　nation　still　possesses　a　large



quantity　of　uncultivated　or　badly　cultivated　land；　so　long　as　it



produces　staple　articles　which　are　readily　taken　by　the　richer



manufacturing　nation　in　exchange　for　manufactured　goods；　so　long　as



these　articles　are　easy　of　transport；　so　long　also　as　the　demand



for　them　is　lasting　and　capable　of　annual　increase　at　a　rate



corresponding　with　the　growth　of　the　productive　powers　of　the



agricultural　nation；　and　so　long　as　it　is　not　interrupted　by　wars



or　foreign　tariff　regulations；　under　such　circumstances　foreign



commerce　has　a　powerful　effect　on　the　increase　of　rents　and　on　the



exchangeable　value　of　land。　But　as　soon　as　any　one　of　these



conditions　fails　or　ceases　to　operate；　foreign　commerce　may　become



the　cause　of　national　stagnation；　nay　frequently　of　considerable



and　long…continued　retrogression。



　　　　The　fickleness　of　foreign　demand　has　the　most　baneful　effect　of



all　in　this　respect；　if　in　consequence　of　wars；　failure　of　crops；



diminution　of　importation　from　other　parts；　or　owing　to　any　other



circumstances　and　occurrences；　the　manufacturing　nation　requires



larger　quantities　especially　of　the　necessaries　of　life　or　raw



materials；　or　of　the　special　staple　articles　referred　to；　and　then



if　this　demand　again　to　a　great　extent　ceases；　in　consequence　of



the　restoration　of　peace；　of　rich　harvests；　of　larger　importation



from　other　countries；　or　in　consequence　of　political　measures。　If



the　demand　lasts　merely　for　a　short　time；　some　benefit　may　result



from　it　to　the　agricultural　nation；　but　if　it　last　for　years　or　a



series　of　years　then　all　the　circumstances　of　the　agricultural



nation；　the　scale　of　expenditure　of　all　private　establishments；



will　have　become　regulated　by　it。　The　producer　becomes　accustomed



to　a　certain　scale　of　consumption；　and　certain　enjoyments；　which



under　other　circumstances　he　would　have　regarded　as　luxuries；



become　necessaries　to　him。　Relying　on　the　increased　yield　and　value



of　his　landed　property；　he　undertakes　improvements　in　cultivation；



in　buildings；　and　makes　purchases　which　otherwise　he　would　never



have　done。　Purchases　and　sales；　contracts　of　letting　land；　loans；



are　concluded　according　to　the　scale　of　increased　rents　and　values。



The　State　itself　does　not　hesitate　to　increase　its　expenses　in



accordance　with　the　increased　prosperity　of　private　persons。　But　if



this　demand　afterwards　suddenly　ceases；　disproportion　between



production　and　consumption　follows；　disproportion　between　the



decreased　values　of　land　and　the　money　encumbrances　upon　it　which



continue　undiminished　in　amount；　disproportion　between　the　money



rent　payable　under　the　leases；　and　the　money　produce　of　the　land



which　has　been　taken　on　lease；　disproportion　between　national



income　and　national　expenditure；　and　in　consequence　of　these



disproportions；　bankruptcy；　embarrassment；　discouragement；



retrogression　in　the　economical　as　well　as　in　the　mental　and



political　development　of　the　nation。　Agricultural　prosperity　would



under　these　circumstances　act　like　the　stimulant　of　opium　or　strong



drink；　stimulating　merely　for　a　moment；　but　weakening　for　a　whole



lifetime。　It　would　be　like　Franklin's　flash　of　lightning；　which　for



a　moment　displayed　the　objects　in　a　shining　light；　but　only　to



throw　them　back　into　deeper　darkness。



　　　　A　period　of　temporary　and　passing　prosperity　in　agriculture　is



a　far　greater　misfortune　than　uniform　and　lasting　poverty。　If



prosperity　is　to　bring　real　benefit　to　individuals　and　nations；　it



must　be　continuous。　It；　however；　becomes　continuous　only　in　case　it



increases　gradually；　and　in　case　the　nation　possesses　guarantees



for　this　increase　and　for　its　duration。　A　lower　value　of　land　is



incomparably　better　than　fluctuations　in　its　value；　it　is　only　a



gradual　but　steady　increase　in　that　value　that　affords　to　the



nation　lasting　prosperity。　And　only　by　the　possession　of　a



manufacturing　power　of　their　own；　can　well…developed　nations



possess　any　guarantee　for　the　steady　and　permanent　increase　of　that



value。



　　　　To　how　very　small　an　extent　clear　ideas　prevail　as　to　the



effect　of　a　home　manufacturing　power　on　the　rent　and　value　of　land



in　comparison　with　the　effect　which　foreign　trade　has　on　them；　is



shown　most　plainly　by　the　circumstance　that　the　proprietors　of



vineyards　in　France　still　always　believe　that　they　are　injuriously



affected　by　the　French　system　of　protection；　and　demand　the



greatest　possible　freedom　of　commerce　with　England　in　hopes　of



thereby　increasing　their　rents。



　　　　Dr　Bowring；　in　his　report　of　the　commercial　relations　existing



between　England　and　France；　the　fundamental　tendency　of　which　is　to



show　the　benefit　to　France　which　a　larger　importation　of　English



fabrics　and　a　consequently　increasing　exportation　of　French　wines



would　occasion；　has　adduced　facts　from　which　the　most　striking



proof　against　his　own　argument　can　be　brought。　Dr　Bowring　quotes



the　importation　of　French　wines　into　the　Netherlands　（2；515；193



gallons；　1829）　against　the　annual　importation　into　England　（431；509



gallons）　to　prove　how　greatly　the　sale　of　French　wines　in　England



could　be　increased　by　freer　commercial　interchange　between　the　two



countries。



　　　　Now　supposing　（although　it　is　more　than　improbable　that　the



sale　of　French　wines　in　England　would　not　find　obstacles　in　the



predilection　existing　there　for　spirituous　liquors；　for　strong



beer；　and　for　the　strong　and　cheap　wines　of　Portugal；　Spain；



Sicily；　Teneriffe；　Madeira；　and　the　Cape）　　supposing　that　England



really　was　to　extend　her　consumption　of　French　wines　to　the　same



proportion　as　that　of　the　Netherlands；　she　would　certainly



（calculating　according　to　her　population）　be　able　to　increase　her



consumption　to　five　or　six　million　gallons　（i。e。　to　from　ten　to



fifteen　fold　her　present　amount）；　and　from　a　superficial　point　of



view　this　certainly　appears　to　promise　great　advantage　to　France；



and　to　the　French　vineyard　proprietors。



　　　　If；　however；　we　investigate　this　matter　to　the　bottom；　we



obtain　another　result。　By　as　much　freedom　of　trade　as　is　possible



　we　will　not　say　complete　freedom　of　trade；　although　the　latter



would　have　to　be　accepted　according　to　the　principle　enunciated；



and　to　Bowring's　arguments　　it　can　scarcely　be　doubted　that　the



English　would　draw　to　themselves　a　large　part　of　the　French　market



for　manufactured　goods　（especially　as　regards　the　manufactures　of



woollens；　cotton；　linen；　iron；　and　pottery）。　On　the　most　moderate



estimate　we　must　assume；　that　in　consequence　of　this　decreased



French　manufacturing　production　one　million　fewer　inhabitants　would



live　in　the　French　towns；　and　that　one　million　fewer　persons　would



be　employed　in　agriculture　for　the　purpose　of　supplying　the



citizens　of　those　towns　with　raw　material　and　necessaries　of　life。