the.world.is.flat-第56节

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specialist　Paul　Romer；　is　what　you　need　to　understand：　The　wages　for　the　Chinese　
knowledge　workers　were　so　low　because；　although　their　skills　were　marketable　globally　
like　those　of　their　American　counterparts；　they　were　trappedinside　a　stifled　economy。　
Imagine　how　little　a　North　Korean　computer　expert　or　brain　surgeon　is　paid　inside　
that　huge　prison　of　a　nation！　But　as　the　Chinese　economy　opens　up　to　the　world　and　
reforms；　the　wages　of　Chinese　knowledge　workers　will　rise　up　to　American/world　levels。　
Ours　will　not　go　down　to　the　level　of　a　stifled；　walled…in　economy。　You　can　already　
see　this　happening　in　Bangalore；　where　competition　for　Indian　software　writers　is　
rapidly　pushing　up　their　wages　toward　American/European　levels…after　decades　of　
languishing　while　the　Indian　economy　was　closed。　It　is　why　Americans　should　be　doing　
all　they　can　to　promote　more　and　faster　economic　reform　in　India　and　China。　
Do　worry；　though；　about　the　20　low…skilled　Americans；　who　now　have　to　compete　more　
directly　with　the　920　low…skilled　Chinese。　One　reason　the　20　low…skilled　Americans　
were　paid　a　decent　wage　before　was　that；　relative　to　the　80　skilled　Americans；　there　
were　not　that　many　of　them。　Every　economy　needs　some　low…skilled　manual　labor。　But　
now　that　China　and　America　have　signed　their　free…trade　pact；　there　are　a　total　of　
940　low…skilled　workers　and　160　knowledge　workers　in　our　two…country　world。　Those　
American　low…skilled　workers　doing　fungible　jobs…jobs　that　can　easily　be　moved　to　
China…will　have　a　problem。　There　is　no　denying　this。　Their　wages　are　certain　to　be　
depressed。　In　order　to　maintain　or　improve　their　living　standards；　they　will　have　
to　move　vertically；　not　horizontally。　They　will　have　to　upgrade　their　education　and　
upgrade　their　knowledge　skills　so　that　they　can　occupy　one　of　the　new　jobs　sure　to　
be　created　in　the　much　expanded　United　States…China　market。　（In　Chapter　8　I　will　talk　
about　our　society's　obligation　to　ensure　that　everyone　gets　a　chance　to　acquire　those　
skills。）　
230　
As　Romer　notes；　we　know　from　the　history　of　our　own　country　that　an　increase　in　
knowledge　workers　does　not　necessarily　lead　to　a　decrease　in　their　pay　the　way　it　
does　with　low…skilled　workers。　From　the　1960s　to　the　1980s；　the　supply　of　
college…educated　workers　grew　dramatically；　and　yet　their　wages　grew　even　faster。　
Because　as　the　pie　grew　in　size　and　complexity；　so　too　did　people's　wants；　and　this　
increased　the　demand　for　people　able　to　do　complex　work　and　specialized　tasks。　
Romer　explains　this　in　part　by　the　fact　that　〃there　is　a　difference　between　idea…based　
goods　and　physical　goods。〃　If　you　are　a　knowledge　worker　making　and　selling　some　kind　


of　idea…based　product…consulting　or　financial　services　or　music　or　software　or　
marketing　or　design　or　new　drugs…the　bigger　the　market　is；　the　more　people　there　are　
out　there　to　whom　you　can　sell　your　product。　And　the　bigger　the　market；　the　more　new　
specialties　and　niches　it　will　create。　If　you　come　up　with　the　next　Windows　or　Viagra；　
you　can　potentially　sell　one　to　everyone　in　the　world。　So　idea…based　workers　do　well　
in　globalization；　and　fortunately　America　as　a　whole　has　more　idea…driven　workers　
than　any　country　in　the　world。　
But　if　you　are　selling　manual　labor…or　a　piece　of　lumber　or　a　slab　of　steel…the　value　
of　what　you　have　to　sell　does　not　necessarily　increase　when　the　market　expands；　and　
it　may　decrease；　argues　Romer。　There　are　only　so　many　factories　that　will　buy　your　
manual　labor；　and　there　are　many　more　people　selling　it。　What　the　manual　laborer　has　
to　sell　can　be　bought　by　only　one　factory　or　one　consumer　at　a　time；　explains　Romer；　
while　what　the　software　writer　or　drug　inventor　has　to　sell　…idea…based　products…can　
be　sold　to　everyone　in　the　global　market　at　once。　
That　is　why　America；　as　a　whole；　will　do　fine　in　a　flat　world　with　free　trade…provided　
it　continues　to　churn　out　knowledge　workers　who　are　able　to　produce　idea…based　goods　
that　can　be　sold　globally　and　who　are　able　to　fill　the　knowledge　jobs　that　will　be　
created　as　we　not　only　expand　the　global　economy　but　connect　all　the　knowledge　pools　
in　the　world。　There　may　be　a　limit　to　the　number　of　good　factory　jobs　in　the　world；　
but　there　is　no　limit　to　the　number　of　idea…generated　jobs　in　the　world。　
If　we　go　from　a　world　in　which　there　were　fifteen　drug　companies　and　fifteen　software　
companies　in　America　（thirty　in　all）　and　two　drug　companies　and　two　software　companies　
in　China　（four　in　all）　to　a　world　

in　which　there　are　thirty　drug　and　software　companies　in　America　and　thirty　drug　and　
software　companies　in　China；　it　is　going　to　mean　more　innovation；　more　cures；　more　
new　products；　more　niches　to　specialize　in；　and　many　more　people　with　higher　incomes　
to　buy　those　products。　
〃The　pie　keeps　growing　because　things　that　look　like　wants　today　are　needs　tomorrow；〃　
argued　Marc　Andreessen；　the　Netscape　cofounder；　who　helped　to　ignite　a　whole　new　
industry；　e…commerce；　that　now　employs　millions　of　specialists　around　the　world；　
specialists　whose　jobs　weren't　even　imagined　when　Bill　Clinton　became　president。　I　
like　going　to　coffee　shops　occasionally；　but　now　that　Starbucks　is　here；　I　need　my　
coffee；　and　that　new　need　has　spawned　a　whole　new　industry。　I　always　wanted　to　be　
able　to　search　for　things；　but　once　Google　was　created；　I　must　have　my　search　engine。　
So　a　whole　new　industry　has　been　built　up　around　search；　and　Google　is　hiring　math　
Ph。D。's　by　the　bushel…before　Yahoo！　or　Microsoft　hires　them。　People　are　always　
assuming　that　everything　that　is　going　to　be　invented　must　have　been　invented　already。　
But　it　hasn't　
〃If　you　believe　human　wants　and　needs　are　infinite；〃　said　Andreeseen；　〃then　there　
are　infinite　industries　to　be　created；　infinitebusinesses　to　be　started；　andinfinite　
jobs　to　be　done；　and　the　only　limiting　factor　is　human　imagination。　The　world　is　
flattening　and　rising　at　the　same　time。　And　I　think　the　evidence　is　overwhelmingly　
clear：　If　you　look　over　the　sweep　of　history；　every　time　we　had　more　trade；　more　


communications；　we　had　a　big　upswing　in　economic　activity　and　standard　of　living。〃　
America　integrated　a　broken　Europe　and　Japan　into　the　global　economy　after　World　War　
II；　with　both　Europe　and　Japan　every　year　upgrading　their　manufacturing；　knowledge；　
and　service　skills；　often　importing　and　sometimes　stealing　ideas　and　equipment　from　
the　United　States；　just　as　America　did　from　Britain　in　the　late　1770s。　Yet　in　the　
sixty　years　since　World　War　II；　our　standard　of　living　has　increased　every　decade；　
and　our　unemployment　rate…even　with　all　the　outcry　about　outsourcing…stands　at　only　
a　little　above　5　percent；　roughly　half　that　of　the　most　developed　countries　in　Western　
Europe。　
〃We　just　started　a　company　that　created　180　new　jobs　in　the　middle　of　a　recession；〃　
said　Andreessen；　whose　company；　Opsware；　uses　au232　
tomation　and　software　to　replace　human　beings　in　the　operation　of　huge　server　farms　
in　remotelocations。　Byautomating　these　jobs；　Opsware　enables　companies　to　save　money　
and　free　up　talented　brainpower　from　relatively　mundane　tasks　to　start　new　businesses　
in　other　areas。　You　should　be　afraid　of　free　markets；　argued　Andreessen；　only　if　you　
believe　that　you　will　never　need　new　medicines；　new　work　flow　software；　new　industries；　
new　forms　of　entertainment；　new　coffeehouses。　
〃Yes；〃　he　concluded；　〃it　takes　a　leap　of　faith；　based　on　economics；　to　say　there　will　
be　new　things　to　do。〃　But　there　always　have　been　new　jobs　to　do；　and　there　is　no　
fundamental　reason　to　believe　the　future　will　be　different。　Some　150　years　ago；　90　
percent　of　Americans　worked　in　agriculture　and　related　fields。　Today；　it's　only　3　
or　4　percent。　What　if　the　government　had　decided　to　protect　and　subsidize　all　those　
agricultural　jobs　and　not　embrace　industrialization　and　then　computerization？　Would　
America　as　a　whole　really　be　better　off　today？　Hardly。　
As　noted；　it　is　true　that　as　Indians　or　Chinese　move　up　the　value　chain　and　start　
producing　more　knowledge…intensive　goods…the　sorts　of　things　Americans　have　been　
specializing　in…our　comparative　advantage　in　some　of　these　areas　will　diminish；　
explains　Jagdish　Bhagwati；　the　Columbia　University　expert　on　free　trade。　There　will　
be　a　downward　pressure　on　wages　in　certain　fields；　and　some　of　the　jobs　in　those　fields　
may　permanently　migrate　abroad。　That　is　why　some　knowledge　workers　will　have　to　move　
horizontally。　But　the　growing　pie　will　surely　create　new　specialties　for　them　to　fill　
that　are　impossible　to　predict　right　now。　
For　instance；　there　was　a　time　when　America's　semiconductor　industry　dominated　the　
world；　but　then　companies　from　other　countries　came　along　and　gobbled　up　the　low　end　
of　the　market。　Some　even　moved　into　the　higher　end。　American　companies　were　then　forced　
to　find　newer；　deeper　specialties　in　the　expanded　market。　If　that　weren't　happening；　
Intel　would　be　out　of　business　today。　Instead；　it　is　thriving。　Paul　Otellini；　Intel's　
president；　told　The　Economist　（May　8；　2003）　that　as　chips　become　good　enough　for　
certain　applications；　new　applications　pop　up　that　demand　more　powerful　and　more　
complex　chips；　wh