the.world.is.flat-第17节

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each　soughtto　have　its　own　infrastructure。　And　why　not？The　Internet　boom　led　everyone　
to　assume　that　the　demand　for　bandwidth　to　carry　all　that　Internet　traffic　would　double　
every　three　months…indefinitely。　For　about　two　years　that　was　true。　But　then　the　law　
of　large　numbers　started　to　kick　in；　and　the　pace　of　doubling　slowed。　Unfortunately；　
the　telecom　companies　weren't　paying　close　attention　to　the　developing　mismatch　
between　demand　and　reality。　The　market　was　in　the　grip　of　an　Internet　fever；　and　
companies　just　kept　building　more　and　more　capacity。　And　the　stock　market　boom　meant　
money　was　free！　It　was　a　party！　So　every　one　of　these　incredibly　optimistic　scenarios　
from　every　one　of　these　new　telecom　companies　got　funded。　In　a　period　of　about　five　
or　six　years；　these　telecom　companies　invested　about　　1　trillion　in　wiring　the　world。　
And　virtually　no　one　questioned　the　demand　projections。　
Few　companies　got　crazier　than　Global　Crossing；　one　of　the　companies　hired　by　all　
these　new　telecoms　to　lay　fiber…optic　cable　for　them　around　the　world。　Global　Crossing　
was　founded　in　1997　by　Gary　Winnick　and　went　public　the　next　year。　Robert　Annunziata；　
who　lasted　only　a　year　as　CEO；　had　a　contract　that　the　Corporate　Library's　Nell　Minow　
once　

picked　as　the　worst　（from　the　point　of　view　of　shareholders）　in　the　United　States。　
Among　other　things；　it　included　Annunziata's　mother's　first…class　airfare　to　visit　
him　once　a　month。　It　also　included　a　signing　bonus　of　2　million　shares　of　stock　at　
10　a　share　below　market。　
Henry　Schacht；　a　veteran　industrialist　now　with　E。　M。　Warburg；　Pincus　&　Co。；　was　
brought　in　by　Lucent；　the　successor　of　Western　Electric；　to　help　manage　it　through　
this　crazy　period。　He　recalled　the　atmosphere：　〃The　telecom　deregulation　of　1996　was　
hugely　important。　It　allowed　competitive　local　exchange　carriers　to　build　their　own　
capacities　and　sell　in　competition　with　each　other　and　with　the　Baby　Bells。　These　
new　telecoms　went　to　companies　like　Global　Crossing　and　had　them　install　fiber　
networks　for　them　so　they　could　compete　at　the　transport　level　with　AT&T　and　MCI；　
particularly　on　overseas　traffic　。　。　。　Everyone　thought　this　was　a　new　world；　and　
it　would　never　stop。　＇You　had＇　competitive　firms　using　free　capital；　and　everyone　
thought　the　pie　would　expand　infinitely。　So　＇each　company　said；＇　'I　will　put　my　fiber　
down　before　you　do；　and　I　will　get　a　bigger　share　than　you。'　It　was　supposed　to　be　
just　a　vertical　growth　line；　straight　up；　and　we　each　thought　we　would　get　our　share；　
so　everybodybuilt　to　the　max　projections　and　assumed　that　they　would　get　their　share。〃　


It　turned　out　that　while　business…to…business　and　e…commerce　developed　as　projected；　
and　a　lot　of　Web　sites　that　no　one　anticipated　exploded…like　eBay；　Amazon；　and　
Google…they　still　devoured　only　a　fraction　of　the　capacity　that　was　being　made　
available。　So　when　the　dotcom　bust　came　along；　there　was　just　way　too　much　fiber…optic　
cable　out　there。　Long…distance　phone　rates　went　from　2　a　minute　to　100。　And　the　
transmission　of　data　was　virtually　free。　〃The　telecom　industry　has　invested　itself　
right　out　of　a　business；〃　Mike　McCue；　chief　operations　officer　of　Tellme　Networks；　
a　voice…activated　Internet　service；　told　CNET　News。com　in　June　2001。　〃They've　laid　
so　much　fiber　in　the　ground　that　they've　basically　commoditized　themselves。　They　are　
going　to　get　into　massive　price　wars　with　everyone　and　it's　going　to　be　a　disaster。〃　
It　was　a　disaster　for　many　of　the　companies　and　their　investors　（Global　Crossing　filed　
for　bankruptcy　in　January　2002；　with　12。4　billion　in　debt）；　but　it　turned　out　to　
be　a　great　boon　for　consumers。　Just　as　the　na

tional　highway　system　that　was　built　in　the　1950s　flattened　the　United　States；　broke　
down　regional　differences；　and　made　it　so　much　easier　for　companies　to　relocate　in　
lower…wage　regions；　like　the　South；　because　ithad　become　so　much　easier　to　move　people　
and　goods　long　distances；　so　the　laying　of　global　fiber　highways　flattened　the　
developed　world。　It　helped　to　break　down　global　regionalism；　create　a　more　seamless　
global　commercial　network；　and　made　it　simple　and　almost　free　to　move　digitized　
labor…service　jobs　and　knowledge　work…to　lower…cost　countries。　
（It　should　be　noted；　though；　that　those　fiber　highways　in　America　tended　to　stop　at　
the　last　mile…before　connecting　to　households。　While　a　huge　amount　of　long…distance　
fiber　cable　was　laid　to　connect　India　and　America；　virtually　none　of　these　new　U。S。　
telecom　companies　laid　any　substantial　new　local　loop　infrastructure；　due　to　a　failure　
of　the　1996　telecom　deregulation　act　to　permit　real　competition　in　the　local　loop　
between　the　cable　companies　and　the　telephone　companies。　Where　the　local　broadband　
did　get　installed　was　in　office　buildings；　which　were　already　pretty　well　served　by　
the　old　companies。　So　this　pushed　prices　down　for　businesses…and　for　Indians　who　
wanted　to　get　online　from　Bangalore　to　do　business　with　those　businesses…but　it　didn't　
create　the　sort　of　competition　that　could　bring　cheap　broadband　capability　to　the　
American　masses　in　their　homes。　That　has　started　happening　only　more　recently。）　
The　broad　overinvestment　in　fiber　cable　is　a　gift　that　keeps　on　giving；　thanks　to　
the　unique　nature　of　fiber　optics。　Unlike　other　forms　of　Internet　overinvestment；　
it　was　permanent：　Once　the　fiber　cables　were　laid；　no　one　was　going　to　dig　them　up　
and　thereby　eliminate　the　overcapacity。　So　when　the　telecom　companies　went　bankrupt；　
the　banks　took　them　over　and　then　sold　their　fiber　cables　for　ten　cents　on　the　dollar　
to　new　companies；　which　continued　to　operate　them；　which　they　could　do　profitably；　
having　bought　them　in　a　fire　sale。　But　the　way　fiber　cable　works　is　that　each　cable　
has　multiple　strands　of　fiber　init　with　a　potential　capacityto　transmit　many　terabits　
of　data　per　second　on　each　strand。　When　these　fiber　cables　were　originally　laid；　the　
optical　switches…the　transmitters　and　receivers…at　each　end　of　them　could　not　take　
full　advantage　of　the　fiber's　full　capacity。　But　every　year　since　then；　the　optical　
switches　


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at　each　end　of　that　fiber　cable　have　gotten　better　and　better；　meaning　that　more　and　
more　voices　and　data　can　be　transmitted　down　each　fiber。　So　as　the　switches　keep　
improving；　the　capacity　of　all　the　already　installed　fiber　cables　just　keeps　growing；　
making　it　cheaper　and　easier　to　transmit　voices　and　data　every　year　to　any　part　of　
the　world。　It　is　as　though　we　laid　down　a　national　highway　system　where　people　were　
first　allowed　to　drive　50　mph；　then　60　mph；　then　70　mph；　then　80　mph；　then　eventually　
150　mph　on　the　same　highways　without　any　fear　of　accidents。　Only　this　highway　wasn't　
just　national。　It　was　international。　
〃Every　layer　of　innovation　gets　built　on　the　next；〃　said　Andreessen；　who　went　on　from　
Netscape　to　start　another　high…tech　firm；　Opsware　Inc。　〃And　today　the　most　profound　
thing　to　me　is　the　fact　that　a　fourteen…year…old　in　Romania　or　Bangalore　or　the　Soviet　
Union　or　Vietnam　has　all　the　information；　all　the　tools；　all　the　software　easily　
available　to　apply　knowledge　however　they　want。　That　is　why　I　am　sure　the　next　Napster　
is　going　to　come　out　of　left　field。　As　bioscience　becomes　more　computational　and　less　
about　wet　labs；　and　as　all　the　genomic　data　becomes　easily　available　on　the　Internet；　
at　some　point　you　will　be　able　to　design　vaccines　on　your　laptop。〃　
I　think　Andreessen　touches　on　what　is　unique　about　the　flat　world　and　the　era　of　
Globalization　3。0。　It　is　going　to　be　driven　by　groups　and　individuals；　but　of　a　much　
more　diverse　background　than　those　twelve　scientists　who　made　up　Andreessen's　world　
when　he　created　Mosaic。　Now　we　are　going　to　see　the　real　human　mosaic　emerge…from　
all　over　the　world；　from　left　field　and　right　field；　from　West　and　East　and　North　
and　South…to　drive　the　next　generation　of　innovation。　Indeed；　a　few　days　after　
Andreessen　and　I　talked；　the　following　headline　appeared　on　the　front　page　of　The　
New　York　Times　（July　15；　2004）：　〃U。S。　Permits　3　Cancer　Drugs　from　Cuba。〃　The　story　
went　on　to　say；　〃The　federal　government　is　permitting　a　California　biotechnology　
company　to　license　three　experimental　cancer　drugs　from　Cuba…making　an　exception　to　
the　policy　of　tightly　restricting　trade　with　that　country。〃Executives　of　the　company；　
CancerVex；　said　that　〃it　was　the　first　time　an　American　biotechnology　company　had　
obtained　permission　to　license　a　drug　from　Cuba；　a　country　that　some　industry　
executives　and　scientists　say　is　surprisingly　strong　in　
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biotechnology　for　a　developing　nation　。　。　。　More　than　1　billion　was　spent　over　the　
years　to　build　and　operate　research　institutes　on　the　west　side　of　Havana　staffed　
by　Cuban　scientists；　many　of　them　educated　in　Europe。〃　
Just　to　summarize　again：　The　PC…Windows　flattening　phase　was　about　me　interacting　
with　my　computer　and　me　interacting　with　my　own　limited　network　inside　my　own　company。　
Then　came　along　this　Internet…e…mail…browser　phase；　and　it　flattened　the　earth　a　
little　bit　more。　It　was　about　me　and　my　computer　interacting　with　anyone　anywhere　
on　any　machine；　which　is　what　e…mail