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the　use　of　substituted　articles。（1*）



　　　　That　the　idea　of　this　Continental　system　will　ever　recur；　that



the　necessity　of　realising　it　will　the　more　forcibly　impress　itself



on　the　Continental　nations　in　proportion　as　the　preponderance　of



England　in　industry；　wealth；　and　power　further　increases；　is



already　very　clear；　and　will　continually　become　more　evident。　But



it　is　not　less　certain　that　an　alliance　of　the　Continental　nations



can　only　have　a　good　result　if　France　is　wise　enough　to　avoid　the



errors　of　Napoleon。　Hence；　it　is　foolish　of　France　if　she　raises



（contrary　to　all　justice；　and　to　the　actual　nature　of



circumstances）　claims　for　extension　of　frontiers　at　the　expense　of



Germany；　and　thereby　compels　other　nations　of　the　Continent　to　ally



themselves　with　England。



　　　　It　is　foolish　of　France　if　she　speaks　of　the　Mediterranean　Sea



as　of　a　French　lake；　and　seeks　to　acquire　exclusive　influence　in



the　Levant　and　in　South　America。



　　　　An　effective　Continental　system　can　only　originate　from　the



free　union　of　the　Continental　powers；　and　can　succeed　only　in　case



it　has　for　its　object　（and　also　effects）　an　equal　participation　in



the　advantages　which　result　from　it；　for　in　that　way　only；　and　in



no　other；　can　the　maritime　powers　of　second　rank　command　respect



from　the　predominant　power　of　England　in　such　a　way　that　the　latter



without　any　recourse　to　the　force　of　arms　will　concede　all　the　just



requirements　of　the　less　powerful　states。　Only　by　such　an　alliance



as　that　will　the　Continental　manufacturing　powers　be　able　to



maintain　their　relations　with　tropical　countries；　and　assert　and



secure　their　interests　in　the　East　and　the　West。



　　　　In　any　case　the　British；　who　are　ever　too　anxious　for



supremacy；　must　feel　it　hard　when　they　perceive　in　this　manner　how



the　Continental　nations　will　reciprocally　raise　their　manufacturing



power　by　mutual　commercial　concessions　and　by　treaties；　how　they



will　reciprocally　strengthen　their　navigation　and　their　naval



power；　how　they　will　assert　their　claim　to　that　share　for　which



they　are　fitted　by　nature　in　civilising　and　colonising　barbarous



and　uncultivated　countries；　and　in　trade　with　tropical　regions。



Nevertheless；　a　glance　into　the　future　ought　sufficiently　to



console　the　britons　for　these　anticipated　disadvantages。



　　　　For　the　same　causes　which　have　raised　Great　Britain　to　her



present　exalted　position；　will　（probably　in　the　course　of　the　next



century）　raise　the　United　States　of　America　to　a　degree　of



industry；　wealth；　and　power；　which　will　surpass　the　position　in



which　England　stands；　as　far　as　at　present　England　excels　little



Holland。　In　the　natural　course　of　things　the　United　States　will



increase　their　population　within　that　period　to　hundreds　of



millions　of　souls；　they　will　diffuse　their　population；　their



institutions；　their　civilisation；　and　their　spirit　over　the　whole



of　Central　and　South　America；　just　as　they　have　recently　diffused



them　over　the　neighbouring　Mexican　province。　The　Federal　Union　will



comprise　all　these　immense　territories；　a　population　of　several



hundred　millions　of　people　will　develop　the　resources　of　a



continent　which　infinitely　exceeds　the　continent　of　Europe　in



extent　and　in　natural　wealth。　The　naval　power　of　the　western　world



will　surpass　that　of　Great　Britain；　as　greatly　as　its　coasts　and



rivers　exceed　those　of　Britain　in　extent　and　magnitude。



　　　　Thus　in　a　not　very　distant　future　the　natural　necessity　which



now　imposes　on　the　French　and　Germans　the　necessity　of　establishing



a　Continental　alliance　against　the　British　supremacy；　will　impose



on　the　British　the　necessity　of　establishing　a　European　coalition



against　the　supremacy　of　America。　Then　will　Great　Britain　be



compelled　to　seek　and　to　find　in　the　leadership　of　the　united



powers　of　Europe　protection；　security；　and　compensation　against　the



predominance　of　America；　and　an　equivalent　for　her　lost　supremacy。



　　　　It　is　therefore　good　for　England　that　she　should　practise



resignation　betimes；　that　she　should　by　timely　renunciations　gain



the　friendship　of　European　Continental　powers；　that　she　should



accustom　herself　betimes　to　the　idea　of　being　only　the　first　among



equals。







NOTES：







1。　This　fact　is　confirmed　by　Mad。　Junot；　in　M閙oires　de　la　Duchess



d'Abrant鑣。　　＇TRANSLATOR。＇











Chapter　36







The　Commercial　Policy　of　the　German　Zollverein







　　　　If　any　nation　whatever　is　qualified　for　the　establishment　of　a



national　manufacturing　power；　it　is　Germany；　by　the　high　rank　which



she　maintains　in　science　and　art；　in　literature　and　education；　in



public　administration　and　in　institutions　of　public　utility；　by　her



morality　and　religious　character；　her　industry　and　domestic



economy；　by　her　perseverance　and　steadfastness　in　business



occupations；　as　also　by　her　spirit　of　invention；　by　the　number　and



vigour　of　her　population；　by　the　extent　and　nature　of　her



territory；　and　especially　by　her　highly　advanced　agriculture；　and



her　physical；　social；　and　mental　resources。



　　　　If　any　nation　whatever　has　a　right　to　anticipate　rich　results



from　a　protective　system　adapted　to　her　circumstances；　for　the



progress　of　her　home　manufactures；　for　the　increase　of　her　foreign



trade　and　her　navigation；　for　the　perfecting　of　her　internal　means



of　transport；　for　the　prosperity　of　her　agriculture；　as　also　for



the　maintenance　of　her　independence　and　the　increase　of　her　power



abroad；　it　is　Germany。



　　　　Yes；　we　venture　to　assert；　that　on　the　development　of　the



German　protective　system　depend　the　existence；　the　independence　and



the　future　of　the　German　nationality。　Only　in　the　soil　of　general



prosperity　does　the　national　spirit　strike　its　roots；　produce　fine



blossoms　and　rich　fruits；　only　from　the　unity　of　material　interests



does　mental　power　arise；　and　only　from　both　of　these　national



power。　But　of　what　value　are　all　our　endeavours；　whether　we　are



rulers　or　subjects；　nobles　or　simple　citizens；　learned　men；



soldiers；　or　civilians；　manufacturers；　agriculturists；　or



merchants；　without　nationality　and　without　guarantees　for　the



continuance　of　our　nationality？



　　　　Meanwhile；　however；　the　German　protective　system　only



accomplishes　its　object　in　a　very　imperfect　manner；　so　long　as



Germany　does　not　spin　for　herself　the　cotton　and　linen　yarn　which



she　requires；　so　long　as　she　does　not　directly　import　from　tropical



countries　the　colonial　produce　which　she　requires；　and　pay　for　it



with　goods　of　her　own　manufacture；　so　long　as　she　does　not　carry　on



this　trade　with　her　own　ships；　so　long　as　she　has　no　means　of



protecting　her　own　flag；　so　long　as　she　possesses　no　perfect　system



of　transport　by　river；　canal；　or　railway；　so　long　as　the　German



Zollverein　does　not　include　all　German　maritime　territories　and



also　Holland　and　belgium。　We　have　treated　these　subjects



circumstantially　in　various　places　in　this　book；　and　it　is　only



necessary　for　us　here　to　recapitulate　what　we　have　already　thus



treated。



　　　　If　we　import　raw　cotton　from　Egypt；　Brazil；　and　North　America；



we　in　that　case　pay　for　it　in　our　own　manufactured　goods；　if；　on



the　other　hand；　we　import　cotton　yarn　from　England；　we　have　to　pay



the　value　of　it　in　raw　materials　and　articles　of　food　which　we



could　more　advantageously　work　up　or　consume　ourselves；　or　else　we



must　pay　for　it　in　specie　which　we　have　acquired　elsewhere；　and



with　which　we　could　more　advantageously　purchase　foreign　raw



materials　to　work　up　for　ourselves；　or　colonial　produce　for　our　own



consumption。



　　　　In　the　same　way　the　introduction　of　spinning　linen　yarn　by



machinery　offers　us　the　means　not　only　of　increasing　our　home



consumption　of　linen；　and　of　perfecting　our　agriculture；　but　also



of　enormously　increasing　our　trade　with　tropical　countries。



　　　　For　the　two　above…named　branches　of　industry；　as　well　as　for



the　manufacture　of　woollens；　we　are　as　favourably　circumstanced　as



any　other　nation；　by　an　amount　of　water　power　hitherto　not



utilised；　by　cheap　necessaries　of　life；　and　by　low　wages。　What　we



lack　is　simply　and　solely　a　guarantee　for　our　capitalists　and



artisans　by　which　they　may　be　protected　against　loss　of　capital　and



want　of　work。　A　moderate　protective　duty　of　about　twenty…five　per



cent　during　the　next　five　years；　which　could　be　maintained　for　a



few　years　at　that　rate　and　then　be　lowered　to　fifteen　to　twenty　per



cent；　ought　completely　to　accomplish　this　object。　Every　argument



which　is　adduc