the works of edgar allan poe-1-第52节

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has　assumed；　of　power。　It　is　not　that　the　Deity　cannot　modify　his　
laws；　but　that　we　insult　him　in　imagining　a　possible　necessity　for　
modification。　In　their　origin　these　laws　were　fashioned　to　embrace　
all　contingencies　which　could　lie　in　the　Future。　With　God　all　is　Now。　

I　repeat；　then；　that　I　speak　of　these　things　only　as　of　coincidences。　
And　farther：　in　what　I　relate　it　will　be　seen　that　between　the　fate　
of　the　unhappy　Mary　Cecilia　Rogers；　so　far　as　that　fate　is　known；　and　
the　fate　of　one　Marie　Rog阾　up　to　a　certain　epoch　in　her　history；　
there　has　existed　a　parallel　in　the　contemplation　of　whose　wonderful　
exactitude　the　reason　becomes　embarrassed。　I　say　all　this　will　be　
seen。　But　let　it　not　for　a　moment　be　supposed　that；　in　proceeding　
with　the　sad　narrative　of　Marie　from　the　epoch　just　mentioned；　and　in　
tracing　to　its　d閚ouement　the　mystery　which　enshrouded　her；　it　is　my　
covert　design　to　hint　at　an　extension　of　the　parallel；　or　even　to　
suggest　that　the　measures　adopted　in　Paris　for　the　discovery　of　the　
assassin　of　a　grisette；　or　measures　founded　in　any　similar　
ratiocination；　would　produce　any　similar　result。　

For；　in　respect　to　the　latter　branch　of　the　supposition；　it　should　be　
considered　that　the　most　trifling　variation　in　the　facts　of　the　two　
cases　might　give　rise　to　the　most　important　miscalculations；　by　
diverting　thoroughly　the　two　courses　of　events；　very　much　as；　in　
arithmetic；　an　error　which；　in　its　own　individuality；　may　be　
inappreciable；　produces；　at　length；　by　dint　of　multiplication　at　all　
points　of　the　process；　a　result　enormously　at　variance　with　truth。　
And；　in　regard　to　the　former　branch；　we　must　not　fail　to　hold　in　view　
that　the　very　Calculus　of　Probabilities　to　which　I　have　referred；　
forbids　all　idea　of　the　extension　of　the　parallel：　…　forbids　it　with　
a　positiveness　strong　and　decided　just　in　proportion　as　this　parallel　
has　already　been　long…drawn　and　exact。　This　is　one　of　those　anomalous　
propositions　which；　seemingly　appealing　to　thought　altogether　apart　
from　the　mathematical；　is　yet　one　which　only　the　mathematician　can　
fully　entertain。　Nothing；　for　example；　is　more　difficult　than　to　
convince　the　merely　general　reader　that　the　fact　of　sixes　having　been　
thrown　twice　in　succession　by　a　player　at　dice；　is　sufficient　cause　
for　betting　the　largest　odds　that　sixes　will　not　be　thrown　in　the　
third　attempt。　A　suggestion　to　this　effect　is　usually　rejected　by　the　
intellect　at　once。　It　does　not　appear　that　the　two　throws　which　have　
been　completed；　and　which　lie　now　absolutely　in　the　Past；　can　have　
influence　upon　the　throw　which　exists　only　in　the　Future。　The　chance　
for　throwing　sixes　seems　to　be　precisely　as　it　was　at　any　ordinary　
time　…　that　is　to　say；　subject　only　to　the　influence　of　the　various　
other　throws　which　may　be　made　by　the　dice。　And　this　is　a　reflection　
which　appears　so　exceedingly　obvious　that　attempts　to　controvert　it　
are　received　more　frequently　with　a　derisive　smile　than　with　anything　
like　respectful　attention。　The　error　here　involved　…　a　gross　error　
redolent　of　mischief　…　I　cannot　pretend　to　expose　within　the　limits　
assigned　me　at　present；　and　with　the　philosophical　it　needs　no　
exposure。　It　may　be　sufficient　here　to　say　that　it　forms　one　of　an　
infinite　series　of　mistakes　which　arise　in　the　path　or　Reason　through　
her　propensity　for　seeking　truth　in　detail。　

　
~~~　End　of　Text　~~~　

　
FOOTNOTESMarie　Rog阾　

｛*1｝　Upon　the　original　publication　of　〃Marie　Roget；〃　the　foot…notes　
now　appended　were　considered　unnecessary；　but　the　lapse　of　several　
years　since　the　tragedy　upon　which　the　tale　is　based；　renders　it　
expedient　to　give　them；　and　also　to　say　a　few　words　in　explanation　of　
the　general　design。　A　young　girl；　Mary　Cecilia　Rogers；　was　murdered　
in　the　vicinity　of　New　York；　and；　although　her　death　occasioned　an　
intense　and　long…enduring　excitement；　the　mystery　attending　it　had　
remained　unsolved　at　the　period　when　the　present　paper　was　written　
and　published　（November；　1842）。　Herein；　under　pretence　of　relating　
the　fate　of　a　Parisian　grisette；　the　author　has　followed　in　minute　
detail；　the　essential；　while　merely　paralleling　the　inessential　facts　
of　the　real　murder　of　Mary　Rogers。　Thus　all　argument　founded　upon　the　
fiction　is　applicable　to　the　truth：　and　the　investigation　of　the　
truth　was　the　object。　The　〃Mystery　of　Marie　Roget〃　was　composed　at　a　
distance　from　the　scene　of　the　atrocity；　and　with　no　other　means　of　
investigation　than　the　newspapers　afforded。　Thus　much　escaped　the　
writer　of　which　he　could　have　availed　himself　had　he　been　upon　the　
spot；　and　visited　the　localities。　It　may　not　be　improper　to　record；　
nevertheless；　that　the　confessions　of　two　persons；　（one　of　them　the　
Madame　Deluc　of　the　narrative）　made；　at　different　periods；　long　
subsequent　to　the　publication；　confirmed；　in　full；　not　only　the　
general　conclusion；　but　absolutely　all　the　chief　hypothetical　details　
by　which　that　conclusion　was　attained。　

｛*2｝　The　nom　de　plume　of　Von　Hardenburg。　

｛*3｝　Nassau　Street。　

｛*4｝　Anderson。　

｛*5｝　The　Hudson。　

｛*6｝　Weehawken。　

｛*7｝　Payne。　

｛*8｝　Crommelin。　

｛*9｝　The　New　York　〃Mercury。〃　

（*10｝　The　New　York　〃Brother　Jonathan；〃　edited　by　H。　Hastings　Weld；　　
Esq。　

｛*11｝　New　York　〃Journal　of　Commerce。〃　

（*12｝　Philadelphia　〃Saturday　Evening　Post；〃　edited　by　C。　I。　Peterson；　
Esq。　

｛*13｝　Adam　

｛*14｝　See　〃Murders　in　the　Rue　Morgue。〃　

｛*15｝　The　New　York　〃Commercial　Advertiser；〃　edited　by　Col。　Stone。　

｛*16｝　〃A　theory　based　on　the　qualities　of　an　object；　will　prevent　its　
being　unfolded　according　to　its　objects；　and　he　who　arranges　topics　
in　reference　to　their　causes；　will　cease　to　value　them　according　to　
their　results。　Thus　the　jurisprudence　of　every　nation　will　show　that；　
when　law　becomes　a　science　and　a　system；　it　ceases　to　be　justice。　The　
errors　into　which　a　blind　devotion　to　principles　of　classification　
has　led　the　common　law；　will　be　seen　by　observing　how　often　the　
legislature　has　been　obliged　to　come　forward　to　restore　the　equity　
its　scheme　had　lost。〃　…　Landor。　

｛*17｝　New　York　〃Express〃　

｛*18｝　NewYork　〃Herald。〃　

｛*19｝　New　York　〃Courier　and　Inquirer。〃　

｛*20｝　Mennais　was　one　of　the　parties　originally　suspected　and　
arrested；　but　discharged　through　total　lack　of　evidence。　

｛*21｝　New　York　〃Courier　and　Inquirer。〃　

｛*22｝　New　York　〃Evening　Post。〃　

｛*23｝　Of　the　Magazine　in　which　the　article　was　originally　published。　

　
　



　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　THE　BALLOON…HOAX

　　　　＇Astounding　News　by　Express；　_via_　Norfolk　！　　…　The　Atlantic　
crossed　in　Three　Days　！　　Signal　Triumph　of　Mr。　Monck　Mason's　Flying　
Machine　！　…　Arrival　at　Sullivan's　Island；　near　Charlestown；　S。C。；　of　
Mr。　Mason；　Mr。　Robert　Holland；　Mr。　Henson；　Mr。　Harrison　Ainsworth；　
and　four　others；　in　the　Steering　Balloon；　〃Victoria；〃　after　a　passage　
of　Seventy…five　Hours　from　Land　to　Land　！　　Full　Particulars　of　the　
Voyage！

　　　　The　subjoined　_jeu　d'esprit_　with　the　preceding　heading　in　
magnificent　capitals；　well　interspersed　with　notes　of　admiration；　was　
originally　published；　as　matter　of　fact；　in　the　〃New　York　Sun；〃　a　
daily　newspaper；　and　therein　fully　subserved　the　purpose　of　creating　
indigestible　aliment　for　the　_quidnuncs_　during　the　few　hours　
intervening　between　a　couple　of　the　Charleston　mails。　　The　rush　for　
the　〃sole　paper　which　had　the　news；〃　was　something　beyond　even　the　
prodigious　；　　and；　in　fact；　if　（as　some　assert）　the　〃Victoria〃　_did_　
not　absolutely　accomplish　the　voyage　recorded；　it　will　be　difficult　
to　assign　a　reason　why　she　_should_　not　have　accomplished　it。＇

　　　　THE　great　problem　is　at　length　solved　！　　The　air；　as　well　as　the　
earth　and　the　ocean；　has　been　subdued　by　science；　and　will　become　a　
common　and　convenient　highway　for　mankind。　　_The　Atlantic　has　been　
actually　crossed　in　a　Balloon！_　and　this　too　without　difficulty　…　
without　any　great　apparent　danger　…　with　thorough　control　of　the　
machine　…　and　in　the　inconceivably　brief　period　of　seventy…five　hours　
from　shore　to　shore　！　　By　the　energy　of　an　agent　at　Charleston；　S。C。；　
we　are　enabled　to　be　the　first　to　furnish　the　public　with　a　detailed　
account　of　this　most　extraordinary　voyage；　which　was　performed　
between　Saturday；　the　6th　instant；　at　11；　A。M。；　　and　2；　P。M。；　on　
Tuesday；　the　9th　instant；　by　Sir　Everard　Bringhurst　；　　Mr。　Osborne；　a　
nephew　of　Lord　Bentinck's　；　　Mr。　Monck　Mason　and　Mr。　Robert　Holland；　
the　well…known　鎟onauts　；　　Mr。　Harrison　Ainsworth；　author　of　〃Jack　
Sheppard；〃　&c。　；　　and　Mr。　Henson；　the　projector　of　the　late　
unsuccessful　flying　machine　…　with　two　seamen　from　Woolwich　…　in　all；　
eight　persons。　　The　particulars　furnished　below　may　be　relied　on　as　
authentic　and　accurate　in　every　respect；　as；　with　a　slight　exception；　
they　are　copied　_verbatim_　from　the　joint　diaries　of　Mr。　Monck　Mason　
and　Mr。　Harrison　Ainsworth；　to　whose　politeness　our　agent　is　also　
indebted　for　much　verbal　information　respecting　the　balloon　itself；　
its　construction；　and　other　matters　of　interest。　　The　only　alteration　
in　the　MS。　received；　has　been　made　for　the　purpose　of　throwing　the　
hurried　account　of　our　agent；　Mr。　Forsyth；　int