the.lost.world-第2节

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ence；　and　which　would　be　revealed　by　chaos　theory；　now　known　as　plexity　theory。　In　the　words　of　one；　plexity　theory　was　〃the　science　of　the　twenty…first　century。〃
　　　　The　Institute　had　explored　the　behavior　of　a　great　variety　of　plex　systems　…　corporations　in　the　marketplace；　neurons　in　the　human　brain；　enzyme　cascades　within　a　single　cell；　the　group　behavior　of　migratory　birds　…　systems　so　plex　that　it　had　not　been　possible　to　study　them　before　the　advent　of　the　puter。　The　research　was　new；　and　the　findings　were　surprising。
　　　　It　did　not　take　long　before　the　scientists　began　to　notice　that　plex　systems　showed　certain　mon　behaviors。　They　started　to　think　of　these　behaviors　as　characteristic　of　all　plex　systems。　They　realized　that　these　behaviors　could　not　be　explained　by　analyzing　the　ponents　of　the　systems。　The　time…honored　scientific　approach　of　reductionism　…　taking　the　watch　apart　to　see　how　it　worked　…　didn't　get　you　anywhere　with　plex　systems；　because　the　interesting　behavior　seemed　to　arise　from　the　spontaneous　interaction　of　the　ponents。　The　behavior　wasn't　planned　or　directed；　it　just　happened。　Such　behavior　was　therefore　called　〃self…organizing。〃
　　　　〃Of　the　self…organizing　behaviors；〃　Ian　Malcolm　said；　〃two　are　of　particular　interest　to　the　study　of　evolution。　One　is　adaptation。　We　see　it　everywhere。　Corporations　adapt　to　the　marketplace；　brain　cells　adapt　to　signal　traffic；　the　immune　system　adapts　to　infection；　animals　adapt　to　their　food　supply。　We　have　e　to　think　that　the　ability　to　adapt　is　characteristic　of　plex　systems…and　may　be　one　reason　why　evolution　seems　to　lead　toward　more　plex　organisms。〃
　　　　He　shifted　at　the　podium；　transferring　his　weight　onto　his　cane。　〃But　even　more　important；〃　he　said；　〃is　the　way　plex　systems　seem　to　strike　a　balance　between　the　need　for　order　and　the　imperative　to　change。　plex　systems　tend　to　locate　themselves　at　a　place　we　call　'the　edge　of　chaos。'We　imagine　the　edge　of　chaos　as　a　place　where　there　is　enough　innovation　to　keep　a　living　system　vibrant；　and　enough　stability　to　keep　it　from　collapsing　into　anarchy。　It　is　a　zone　of　conflict　and　upheaval；　where　the　old　and　the　new　are　constantly　at　War。　Finding　the　balance　point　must　be　a　delicate　matter　…　if　a　living　system　drifts　too　close；　it　risks　falling　over　into　incoherence　and　dissolution；　but　if　the　system　moves　too　far　away　from　the　edge；　it　bees　rigid；　frozen；　totalitarian。　Both　conditions　lead　to　extinction。　Too　much　change　is　as　destructive　as　too　little。　Only　at　the　edge　of　chaos　can　plex　systems　flourish。〃
　　　　He　paused。　〃And；　by　implication；　extinction　is　the　inevitable　result　of　one　or　the　other　strategy　…too　much　change；　or　too　little。〃
　　　　In　the　audience；　heads　were　nodding。　This　was　familiar　thinking　to　most　of　the　researchers　present。　Indeed；　the　concept　of　the　edge　of　chaos　was　very　nearly　dogma　at　the　Santa　Fe　Institute。
　　　　〃Unfortunately；〃　Malcolm　continued；　〃the　gap　between　this　theoretical　construct　and　the　fact　of　extinction　is　vast。　We　have　no　way　to　know　if　our　thinking　is　correct。　The　fossil　record　can　tell　us　that　an　animal　became　extinct　at　a　certain　time；　but　not　why。　puter　simtulations　are　of　limited　value。　Nor　can　we　perform　experiments　on　living　organisms。　Thus；　we　are　obliged　to　admit　that　extinction　…　untestable；　unsuited　for　experiment　…　may　not　be　a　scientific　subject　at　all。　And　this　may　explain　why　the　subject　has　been　embroiled　in　the　most　intense　religious　and　political　controversy。　I　would　remind　you　that　there　is　no　religious　debate　about　Avogadro's　number；　or　Planck's　constant；　or　the　functions　of　the　pancreas。　But　about　extinction；　there　has　been　perpetual　controversy　for　two　hundred　years。　And　I　wonder　how　it　is　to　be　solved　if　…Yes？　What　is　it？〃
　　　　At　the　back　of　the　room；　a　hand　had　gone　up；　waving　impatiently。　Malcolm　frowned；　visibly　annoyed。　The　tradition　at　the　Institute　was　that　questions　were　held　until　the　presentation　ended；　it　was　poor　form　to　interrupt　a　speaker。　〃You　had　a　question？〃　Malcolm　asked。

From　the　back　of　the　room；　a　young　man　in　his　early　thirties　stood。　〃Actually；〃　the　man　said；　〃an　observation。〃
　　　　The　speaker　was　dark　and　thin；　dressed　in　khaki　shirt　and　shorts；　precise　in　his　movements　and　manner。　Malcolm　recognized　him　as　a　paleontologist　from　Berkeley　named　Levine；　who　was　spending　the　Summer　at　the　Institute。　Malcolm　had　never　spoken　to　him；　but　he　knew　his　reputation：　Levine　was　generally　agreed　to　be　the　best　paleobiologist　of　his　generation；　perhaps　the　best　in　the　world。　But　most　people　at　the　Institute　disliked　him；　finding　him　pompous　and　arrogant。
　　　　〃I　agree；〃　Levine　continued；　〃that　the　fossil　record　is　not　helpful　in　addressing　extinction。　Particularly　if　your　thesis　is　that　behavior　is　the　cause　of　extinction　…　because　bones　don't　tell　us　much　about　behavior。　But　I　disagree　that　your　behavioral　thesis　is　untestable。　In　point　of　fact；　it　implies　an　oute。　Although　perhaps　you　haven't　yet　thought　of　it。〃
　　　　The　room　was　silent。　At　the　podium；　Malcolm　frowned。　The　eminent　mathematician　was　not　accustomed　to　being　told　he　had　not　thought　through　his　ideas。　〃What's　your　point；〃　he　said。
　　　　Levine　appeared　indifferent　to　the　tension　in　the　room。　〃Just　this；〃　he　said。　〃During　the　Cretaceous；　Dinosauria　were　widely　distributed　across　the　planet；　We　have　found　their　remains　on　every　continent；　and　in　every　climatic　zone　…　even　in　the　Antarctic。　Now。　If　their　extinction　was　really　the　result　of　their　behavior；　and　not　the　consequence　of　a　Catastrophe；　or　a　disease；　or　a　change　in　plant　life；　or　any　of　the　other　broad…scale　explanations　that　have　been　proposed；　then　it　seems　to　me　highly　unlikely　that　they　all　changed　their　behavior　at　the　same　time；　everywhere。　And　that　in　turn　means　that　there　may　well　be　some　remnants　of　these　animals　still　alive　on　the　earth。　Why　couldn't　you　look　for　them？〃　
　　　　〃You　could；〃　Malcolm　said　coldly；　〃if　that　amused　you。　And　if　you　had　no　more　pelling　use　for　your　time。〃
　　　　〃No；　no；〃　Levine　said　earnestly。　〃I'm　quite　serious。　What　if　the　dinosaurs　did　not　bee　extinct？　What　if　they　still　exist？　Somewhere　in　an　isolated　spot　on　the　planet。〃
　　　　〃You're　talking　about　a　Lost　World；〃　Malcolm　said；　and　heads　in　the　room　nodded　knowingly。　Scientists　at　the　Institute　had　developed　a　shorthand　for　referring　to　mon　evolutionary　scenarios。　They　spoke　of　the　Field　of　Bullets；　the　Gambler's　Ruin；　the　Game　of　Life；　the　Lost　World；　the　Red　Queen；　and　Black　Noise。　These　were　well…defined　ways　of　thinking　about　evolution。　But　they　were　all　…
　　　　〃No；〃　Levine　said　stubbornly。　〃I　am　speaking　literally。〃
　　　　〃Then　you're　badly　deluded；〃　Malcolm　said；　with　a　dismissive　wave　of　his　hand。　He　turned　away　from　the　audience；　and　walked　slowly　to　the　blackboard。　〃Now；　if　we　consider　the　implications　of　the　edge　of　chaos；　we　may　begin　by　asking　ourselves；　what　is　the　minimal　unit　of　life？　Most　contemporary　definitions　of　life　would　include　the　presence　of　DNA；　but　there　are　two　examples　which　suggest　to　us　that　this　definition　is　too　narrow。　If　you　consider　viruses　and　so…called　prions；　it　is　clear　that　life　may　in　fact　exist　without　DNA。。。。〃
　　　　　　　　At　the　back　of　the　room；　Levine　stared　for　a　moment。　Then；　reluctantiv　he　sat　down；　and　began　to　make　notes。

The　Lost　World　Hypothesis
　　　　
The　lecture　ended；　Malcolm　hobbled　across　the　open　courtyard　of　the　Institute；　shortly　after　noon。　Walking　beside　him　was　Sarah　Harding；　a　young　field　biologist　visiting　from　Africa。　Malcolm　had　known　her　for　several　years；　since　he　had　been　asked　to　serve　as　an　Outside　reader　for　her　doctoral　thesis　at　Berkeley。
　　　　Crossing　the　courtyard　in　the　hot　summer　sun；　they　made　an　unlikely　pair：　Malcolm　dressed　in　black；　stooped　and　ascetic；　leaning　on　his　cane；　Harding　pact　and　muscular；　looking　young　and　energetic　in　shorts　and　a　tee　shirt；　her　short　black　hair　pushed　up　on　her　forehead　with　sunglasses。　Her　field　of　study　was　African　predators；　lions　and　hyenias。　She　was　scheduled　to　return　to　Nairobi　the　next　day。
　　　　The　two　had　been　close　since　Malcolm's　surgery。　Harding　had　been　on　a　sabbatical　year　in　Austin；　and　had　helped　nurse　Malcolm　back　to　health；　after　his　many　operations。　For　a　while　it　seemed　as　if　a　romance　had　blossomed；　and　that　Malcolm；　a　confirmed　bachelor；　would　settle　down。　But　then　Harding　had　gone　back　to　Africa；　and　Malcolm　had　gone　to　Santa　Fe。　Whatever　their　former　relationship　had　been；　they　were　now　just　friends。
　　　　They　discussed　the　questions　that　had　e　at　the　end　of　his　lecture。　From　Malcolm's　point　of　view；　there　had　been　only　the　predictable　objections：　that　mass　extinctions　were　important；　that　human　beings　owed　their　existence　to　the　Cretaceous　extinction；　which　had　wiped　out　the　dinosaurs　and　allowed　the　mammals　to　take　over。　As　one　questioner　had　pompously　phrased　it；　〃The　Cretaceous　allowed　our　own　sentient　awareness　to　arise　on　the　planet。〃
　　　　Mal's　reply　was　immediate：　〃What　makes　you　think　human　beings　are　sentient　and　aware？　There's　no　evidence　for　it。　Human　beings　never　think　for　themselves　they　find　it　too　unfortable。　For　the　most　part；　members　of　our　species　simply　repeat　what　they　are　told　…and　bee　upset　if　they　are　exposed　to　any　different　view。　The　characteristic　human　trait　is　not　awareness