tc.redstormrising-第32节

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illigrams　per　cubic　meter；　predicted　vertical　temperature　gradients；　and　cloud…width　inputs；　we　see　that　the　downwind　toxic　vapor　hazard　to　large　areas　of　the　FRG　and　DDR　will　be　approximately　0。3　（plus　or　minus　50％　in　our　calculations；　allowing　for　expected　impurities　and　chemical　breakdown　in　the　chemical　munitions）　as　great　as　that　at　the　targets　themselves。
Since　open　Soviet　literature　calls　for　source　（that　is；　target）　concentrations　well　beyond　median　lethal　dose　（LCT…50）；　we　see　that　the　entire　German　civilian　population　is　at　the　gravest　risk　Expected　allied　retaliation　to　such　chemical　strikes　would　be　largely　psychological　in　nature…the　use　of　Soviet　munitions　alone　will　effectively　contaminate　most　of　Greater　Germany；　it　is　expected　that　no　part　of　Germany　east　of　the　Rhein　can　be　considered　safe　to　unprotected　personnel；　beginning　12　hours　after　the　first　munitions　are　expended。　Similar　effects　may　be　expected　in　parts　of　Czechoslovakia；　and　even　western　Poland；　depending　on　wind　direction　and　speed。　Such　contamination　must　be　expected；　moreover；　to　continue　at　least　1。5　times　the　mean　persistence　level　of　the　agents　used。
This　is　the　last　（and　statistically　most　likely）　of　the　scenarios　outlined　by　the　contract　specifications。
SECTION　VIII：　EXECUTIVE　SUMMARY
As　the　reader　will　appreciate；　although　given　tactical　warning　of　only　a　few　minutes；　alerted　military　formations　can　confidently　be　expected　to　sufferfew　casualties　（albeit　with　30…50％　degradation　of　bat　effectiveness；this　degradation　likely；　however；　to　equate　to　both　sides）；　expected　casualties　　es　civilians　will　actually　be　greater　than　those　anticipated　from　a　Level…2　exchange　of　tactical　nuclear　weapons　（200　warheads　@　｛　100kt　yield；　seeAppendix　A　of　Annex　1）　at　a　mix　of　military　and　civilian/industrial　targets。　Thus；　despite　the　fact　that　chemical　munitions　are　not　of　themselves　directly　damaging　to　fixed　industrial　assets；　serious　near…　and　long…term　economic　effects　must　be　expected。　Even　the　use　of　nonpersistentagents　at　the　FEBA　（Forward　Edge　of　the　Battle　Area）　cannot　but　have　major　impact　on　the　civilian　population　due　to　the　heavily　urbanized　character　of　the　German　countryside　and　the　patent　inability　of　any　government　to　provide　adequate　protection　for　its　civilian　population。
In　terms　of　immediate　effects；　the　10；000；000＋　civilian　fatality　floor　figure　in　Scenario　2　represents　a　public　health　problem　worse　by　an　order　of　magnitude　than　that　following　the　Bangladesh　Cyclone　disaster　of　1970；　and　is　likely　to　include　synergistic　effects　well　beyond　the　scope　of　this　study。　（Contract　specifications　specifically　excluded　investigation　into　bidecological　effects　from　a　major　chemical　exchange。　While　the　difficulty　associated　with　an　in…depth　examination　of　this　subject　is　impossible　at　this　writing　to　estimate；　the　reader　is　cautioned　that　such　far…reaching　effects　are　less　easily　dealt　with　than　studied。　It　might　be　necessary；　for　example；　to　import　tons　of　insect　larvae　before　the　simplest　food　crops　can　again　flourish　in　Western　Europe。）　For　the　moment　the　ability　even　of　organized　armies　to　dispose　of　millions　of　civilian　bodies　in　advanced　stages　of　deposition　is　not　something　to　be　taken　for　granted。　And　the　civilians　needed　for　the　reestablishment　of　industrial　production　（under　what　are　almost　certainly　optimistic　estimates）　will　have　been　at　the　least　decimated　in　the　literal；　classical　sense。
An　Analysis　of　the　Effects　of　Chemical
Warfare　in　the　European　Theater　Utilizing
Atmospheric　Release　Advisory　Capability　（ARAC）　Prediction
Lawrence…Livermore　National　Laboratories
LLNL　88…2504　*　CR　8305/89/178
SIGMA　2
Specified　External　Distribution　Only
｝｝SECRET｛｛

Johannes　Bitner　did　not　throw　the　report　into　his　trash　basket…he　felt　like　washing　his　hands。　Yet　another　similarity　between　East　and　West；　he　thought　coldly。　Their　government　reports　are　written　by　puters　to　be　read　by　calculators。　Just　like　ours。　Just　like　ours。
〃Herr　Generaloberst。〃　The　Chief　of　the　munist　Party　of　the　DDR　looked　up　at　his　mander…in…Chief。　He　and　another　officer　had　e　early　in　the　morning…and　in　civilian　clothes…to　visit　him　at　his　plush　private　residence　in　Wandlitz；　the　enclave　of　the　Party　elite　outside　Berlin。　They　had　delivered　the　document　obtained　only　two　days　earlier　through　a　highly　placed　DDR　agent　in　West　Germany's　Ministry　of　Defense。　〃Just　how　accurate　is　this　document？〃
〃rade　Secretary；　we　cannot　check　their　puter　models；　of　course；　but　their　formulae；　their　estimates　for　the　persistence　of　Soviet　chemical　weapons；　their　predicted　weather　patterns…that　is；　all　of　the　data　which　supposedly　underlies　this　study…has　been　examined　by　members　of　my　intelligence　staff　and　rechecked　by　some　chosen　faculty　members　at　the　University　of　Leipzig。　There　is　no　reason　to　believe　that　it　is　anything　but　genuine。〃
〃In　fact；〃　said　Colonel　Mellethin；　director　of　Foreign　Operations　Analysis…he　was　a　spare；　austere　man　with　eyes　that　clearly　had　not　known　sleep　for　some　days…〃the　Americans　understate　the　total　quantities　of　munitions　employed；　because　they　consistently　overstate　the　accuracy　of　Russian　delivery　systems。〃　The　other　two　men　in　the　room　noted　at　once　that　Russian　had　been　substituted　for　Soviet。
〃There　is　something　else　you　wish　to　say；　Mellethin？〃　Bitner　asked　sharply。
〃rade　Secretary；　from　the　Russian　point　of　view；　what　is　the　objective　of　this　war？〃
〃The　neutralization　of　NATO；　and　access　to　greater　economic　assets。　Say　what　you　have　to　say；　rade　Colonel；〃　Bitner　ordered。
〃rade；　success　for　the　Warsaw　Pact　would　leave　a　united　Germany。　I　point　out　that　a　united　Germany；　even　a　united　socialist　Germany；　would　be　viewed　as　a　strategic　threat　by　the　Soviet　Union…after　all；　we　are　better　socialists　than　they；　nicht　wahr？〃　Mellethin　took　a　deep　breath　before　going　on。　Was　he　risking　his　life？　Did　it　matter？　The　family　name　had　once　been　von　Mellethin；　and　unwavering　loyalty　to　the　State　was　not　something　that　munism　had　taught　his　line　of　professional　soldiers。　〃rade　Party　Secretary；　Soviet　success　in　this　operation　will　leave　Germany；　socialist　and　capitalist；　as　barren　as　the　surface　of　the　moon；　a　minimum　of　ten　to　thirty　percent　of　our　people　dead；　our　land　poisoned；　even　without　Western　chemical　retaliation。　rade；　we　learned　today　that　the　Americans　have　begun　airlifting　'Bigeye'　chemical　aircraft　bombs　into　their　base　at　Ramstein。　If　our　'allies'　use　their　chemical　weapons；　and　then　NATO　retaliates　in　kind；　it　is　entirely　possible　that　our　country…that　German　culture　itself…will　pletely　cease　to　exist。　Such　an　objective　is　not　militarily　defensible；　but　I　suggest；　rade；　that　this　could　be　an　additional；　political　objective　of　the　Russian　plan。〃
Bitner's　expression　didn't　change　a　whit；　and　his　visitors　couldn't　see　the　chill　that　was　enveloping　their　national　leader。　The　meeting　he'd　had　the　previous　week　in　Warsaw　had　been　unsettling　enough；　but　now　the　reason　behind　the　greasy　reassurances　offered　him　by　the　Soviet　leadership　seemed　all　too　clear。
〃There　is　no　way　to　protect　our　civilian　population？〃　Bitner　asked。
〃rade。〃　The　General　sighed。　〃These　persistent　agents　need　not　be　breathed。　They　also　work　through　the　skin。　If　one　touches　a　contaminated　surface；　one　is　poisoned。　Even　if　we　order　our　people　to　remain　in　their　homes　with　windows　and　door　closed；　houses　and　apartment　blocks　are　not　airtight。　And　people　still　must　eat。　Factory　workers　in　certain　essential　industries　still　must　work。　Medical　personnel；　police；　and　internal　security　personnel…some　of　our　most　valuable　citizens　will　be　the　most　gravely　exposed。　These　aerosols　will　travel　invisibly　across　our　country；　virtually　undetectable。　They　will　leave　a　toxic　film　on　lawns；　trees；　fences；　walls；　trucks…nearly　everything。　The　rain　will　wash　much　off；　but　tests　made　years　ago　show　that　some　of　these　poisons…those　on　the　undersides　of　fences；　for　example…will　persist　for　weeks；　even　months。　We　would　need　thousands　of　decontamination　teams　even　to　begin　the　task　of　making　our　country　safe　enough　for　our　citizens　to　walk　to　their　markets。　Colonel　Mellethin　is　correct：　if　the　Russians　use　their　gas　weapons；　and　then　the　Americans　reply　in　kind；　we　would　be　fortunate　if　half　our　citizens　were　alive　six　months　from　today。　It　is　actually　easier　to　protect　our　citizens　from　nuclear　weapons　than　against　gasses；　and　nuclear　effects　are　shorter…lived。〃
〃Du　lieber　Gott。　〃

MOSCOW；　R。S。F。S。R。
〃They　said　what？〃　The　Defense　Minister　almost　screamed。
〃Our　fraternal　socialist　rades　of　the　German　Democratic　Republic　have　informed　us　that　they　can　only　view　the　use　of　chemical　munitions　inside　their　territory　as　a　matter　of　the　gravest　national　concern。〃　The　Foreign　Minister　spoke　dryly。　〃Moreover；　they　have　forwarded　to　us　intelligence　reports　which　show　clearly　that　the　use　of　such　weapons　would　only　serve　to　harden　NATO　resolve…and　possibly　open　the　door　to　other　weapons　of　mass　destruction。〃
〃But　they　are　part　of　the　plan！〃　Defense　objected。
〃rades；〃　Sergetov　observed。　〃We　all　know　that　the　use　of　chemical　munitions　will　have　calamitous　effects　on　civilians…wouldn't　this　promise　our　political　maskirovka？　Aren't　we　saying　that　our　quarrel　is　with　the　West　German　government？　How　might　it　lo